TFM Morning Update 10-26-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower to start this week likely pressured by the drop in soybeans related to the Brazilian election. December corn is down 2-1/4 cents to $4.53-3/4 while March is down 2-1/4 cents to $4.68.
The USDA admitted to having a processing error in its September corn estimates and retroactively revised US production up by 28 million bushels. The error affected Kansas, Nebraska, and the national total. The USDA says that the controversial October estimates are unchanged.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn as of October 20. They sold 84,620 contracts which reduced their net long position to 146,257 contracts. This was a weekly change of 36.7%.

Soybean futures are trading sharply lower this morning following election results in Brazil. November soybeans are down 18-3/4 cents to $12.38 while March is down 19 cents to $12.57. December soybean meal is down $6.60 to $339.50 and December soybean oil is down 0.34 cents to 66.48 cents.
Yesterday’s Presidential election in Brazil saw a surprising win by Lula against Bolsonaro. This caused the Brazilian real to drop and US soybean prices to fall as Lula is more friendly towards China which may impact US exports.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 30,555 contracts of soybeans reducing their net long position to 206,936 contracts. They sold 19,470 contracts of soybean oil leaving them long 69,858 contracts and sold 1,438 contracts of meal leaving them long 204,693 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading just slightly lower this morning despite bigger losses in corn and soybeans. December Chicago wheat is down 1/2 cent to $6.24-3/4, KC is down 1-3/4 cents to $6.62-3/4, and Minn is down 1 cent to $6.40-1/2.
According to USDA, an estimated 49% of U.S. winter wheat acres were experiencing drought conditions as of October 20, down 4 percentage points from the previous week but still above last year’s 43%. Meanwhile, 38% of U.S. spring wheat acres remained in drought, unchanged from the previous week.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 18,096 contracts which increased their net short position to 51,134 contracts. They sold 10,996 contracts of KC wheat which reduced their net long position to 6,395 contracts.

Amanda Brill