Eyes on 2027
What’s Happened…
Recent upgrades to the corn yield for 2026 crop as noted from the October USDA WASDE report coupled with higher-than-expected quarterly stocks pushed corn prices lower, with futures losing over 80 cents since early September. Soybean yield numbers edged slightly higher and may see another increase in the November USDA Supply and Demand report, as harvest results appear encouraging. With supplies on the rise, the urgency for end users to cover needs is not as critical as it was a couple months ago when crop conditions were sliding, suggesting production for both corn and soybeans could be in jeopardy. Yet here we are, deep into harvest and a reversal from declining yields to higher yields. Carry (cost of holding grain) does exist in corn with December 2027 trading near $5. One scenario would suggest this price could come under pressure in the year ahead. November 2027 soybeans trading above $12 could be viewed as too high for 2027.
Why this is Important…
We are not implying crops are bullet–proof, yet with all the challenges for the 2026 growing season (especially weather), it appears crops are going to come through with flying colors. Extrapolating this to next year, it will take something bigger or more concerning than what occurred in 2026 to get buyers and/or speculators to buy into up-trending prices. The lesson learned in 2026: don’t chase prices higher. The crop will come though. While we all know that might be dangerous thinking, as there are no guarantees when growing crops, 2026 did also remind us just how good technology (and farmers) are at producing crops, consistently. The bottom line is to now pay attention to what is offered in the year ahead with a somewhat blind assumption that production will come through and prices may not get better than $5 for corn and $12 for soybeans.
What can you do about it?
Create strategy for 2027 and plan for different scenarios. Take a deep dive into all the marketing tools you can use. Create a balance between defensive posturing for lower prices and maintaining enough ownership for a price rally. Converse with your buyer about ways to shift risk into next year. During 2025, prices slid all year into harvest – a painful reminder that prices don’t have to rally. The old saying is bull markets have long tails, meaning price rallies in one year can lead to longer–term downtrends into the next year. The key is to act. End users are likely to take a buy–as–needed approach, which is not something that pushes prices higher on its own.
Find out what works for you…
Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation rather than emotionally-charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.
About the Author: With the wisdom of over 36 years at Total Farm Marketing and following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of Brokerage Solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the markets and marketing tools, an excellent listener, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with their decisions.
The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.
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Bryan Doherty