TFM Midday Update 10-28-2026

CORN

Corn is posting slight gains at midday trade with December corn up 3-3/4 cents at 4.52-1/2 and March 2027 corn up 3-1/4 cents at 4.66.
Russia indicated this morning that talks with Ukraine and the U.S. are expected to begin in Abu Dhabi in November, though no specific date was announced. Improved prospects for Black Sea peace talks contributed to this morning’s market weakness.
U.S. harvest progress is 60% complete, in line with expectations but behind the five-year average of 66%. Iowa is 20 percentage points behind average, while South Dakota and Michigan are lagging by 18 and 15 points, respectively. Additional delays are expected over the next week as rain moves into the region.
The U.S. agricultural attaché estimates Argentina’s 2026/27 corn production at 62 million metric tons, well above the USDA’s October estimate of 55 million tons, citing an increase in planted area.
U.S. ethanol production rose to 329 million gallons last week, up from 322 million the previous week and 2.5% year over year. Production came in above expectations.

Soybeans are higher at midday trade with November soybeans up 2-1/4 cents at 12.31-1/2 and January soybeans up ¾ cents at 12.43-3/4. Soybean oil and soybean meal are lower at midday.
The weakening of the Brazilian real will boost Brazil’s competitiveness and could strengthen trade relations between China and Brazil, adding another bearish factor for soybean prices in the near term.
Overnight, SinoGrain sold 33.7% of the 512,000 metric tons offered at its reserve auction.
The harvest in the U.S. has reached 79% completed, in line with estimates and compared to the 77% average. There is no data from this time last year to compare to due to the government shut down. Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska are all 6-7% behind average.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday as more positive developments in Black Sea peace talks raise hopes for an end to the conflict, weighing on prices. December Chicago wheat is down 9-3/4 cents at 6.00-1/2 and December Kansas City wheat is down 6 cents at 6.44-1/2.
The Kremlin announced this morning that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian talks are expected to begin in Abu Dhabi in November, though no specific date was provided. Russia’s announcement may signal a greater willingness to negotiate a deal, raising hopes for progress toward ending the conflict.
IKAR lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2026 wheat exports to 29 million metric tons, down 17 million from last year and well below the USDA’s estimate of 40 million tons.
U.S. winter wheat planting is 76% complete, near the five-year average of 77%. Top-producing Kansas is also on pace with its average, while Oklahoma, Ohio, and Arkansas are lagging behind.
The U.S. agricultural attaché estimates Argentina’s wheat production at 23 million metric tons, above the USDA’s forecast of 21.5 million. Australia’s wheat crop is projected at 32 million tons, also above the USDA’s estimate of 31 million but below last year’s 36 million.

Lauren VandenLangenberg