TFM Morning Update 11-03-2026

CORN

Corn futures are facing pressure this morning, with the market trading slightly lower. December corn is 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.46-1/2, while March corn is 1-1/2 cents lower at $4.60-1/2.
Weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 885,000 MT, or 34.8 mb, for the week ending October 29, which was within market expectations. Cumulative inspections have reached 420 mb, down 13% from a year ago, compared with USDA’s forecast for a 4% year-over-year decline in exports.
U.S. fertilizer prices are surging as reduced exports from Trinidad and Tobago add to already tight global supplies. Higher fertilizer costs, combined with elevated diesel prices during harvest, are increasing input-cost pressure for U.S. farmers heading into the next growing season.

Soybean futures are trading slightly higher this morning. January soybeans are 2-1/2 cents higher at $12.19-1/4, while March soybeans are 1-1/4 cents higher at $12.27-3/4.
U.S. farmers had harvested 88% of the soybean crop as of Sunday, slightly ahead of the five-year average. Harvest pressure remains a factor for the market, with U.S. soybean production currently forecast to reach a record high.
Brazilian farmers had planted 53% of the projected 2026/27 soybean area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was up sharply from 40% the previous week and ahead of last year’s 47% pace, keeping seasonal pressure on the soybean market.

The wheat complex is facing pressure this morning, with the market trading slightly lower across the board. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 1/2 cent lower at $6.06, Kansas City wheat is 2 cents lower at $6.44, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1 cent lower at $6.24-3/4.
Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled just 2.8 mb. Cumulative 2026/27 inspections now stand at 277 mb, down 36% from a year ago and well behind the pace needed to reach USDA’s 750 mb export forecast, which would represent a 17% year-over-year decline.
The United States is scheduled to host Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11 for renewed peace talks. Discussions are expected to focus on ending the war, post-war security arrangements, and de-escalation, adding another potential source of volatility for Black Sea grain markets.

Matthew Lucas