TFM Morning Update 11-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning and have been relatively quiet since Tuesday’s WASDE rally. December corn is down 3/4 cent to $4.47-1/4, while March is unchanged at $4.60-1/4.
The USDA sharply lowered corn yield in the WASDE report to 179.6 from 181.2 bpa, and statistically, the USDA tends to continue lowering yields from the November report through the December report, which could bring funds back in as more serious buyers.
Analysts expect ethanol production to come in between 1.14 and 1.15 million bpd, which would be similar to last week. Stocks are estimated at 24.0 to 25.0 million barrels which would compare to last week’s 24.4 million.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning following gains over the past two days. November futures expire tomorrow, so new front month January is down 2-1/2 cents to $12.28-1/4 while March is down 3 cents to $12.35. December soybean meal is down $1.20 to $328.50, and soybean oil is down 0.25 cents to 63.63 cents.
Indonesia’s biofuel use it expected to rise in December. It reached 13.87m kiloliters in November and is expected to reach 16.74m in December. All gas stations in the country are down supplying the new B50 biofuel blend.
In Brazil, rain showers have been frequent but lower than normal amounts in central Brazil and have been below the forecast. If this continues, soybeans may have issues with below-normal soil moisture levels, which could set them up poorly for later in the season.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day following yesterday’s gains. December Chicago wheat is down 4 cents to $5.95-1/2, KC is down 6-1/4 to $6.33-1/4, and Minn is down 2 cents to $6.33-1/2.
Ukrainian grain stocks could hit a record of 30 million tons as a result of blocked ports in the Black Sea. This would compare to ending grain stocks of 10 million tons as of July 1 2026.
Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. are currently meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss a route to opening the Strait of Hormuz, but with the meetings wrapping up, it does not seem like anything has been achieved, which may support wheat.

Amanda Brill