TFM Midday Update 11-11-2026

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday, finding little support as the Veterans Day holiday delays the ethanol production report until tomorrow. December corn is down 3-3/4 cents at 4.45-1/4 and March corn is down 3-3/4 cents at 4.58.
USDA lowered yield estimates more than anticipated in yesterday’s report, pushing ending stocks well below market expectations.
Support came from USDA lowering Ukraine’s export forecast by 10%, along with Germany’s largest cooperative estimating the 2026 crop will be down 17.1% year over year.
ANEC raised its November Brazilian corn export forecast to 7.21 million metric tons, up from last week’s estimate of 6.02 million, as the Brazilian real weakened further against the U.S. dollar.

Soybeans are trading mixed despite bullish USDA data released yesterday. January soybeans are down ½ cent at 12.27-1/2 while March soybeans are up ¼ cent at 12.34-3/4. The entire soy complex is trading mixed at midday trade.
Yesterday’s USDA report put ending stocks below expectations, with yields increasing across much of the Western Corn Belt while Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois saw declines from last month. Export estimates were also raised, bringing the soybean stocks-to-use ratio to its second-lowest level in the past five years.
Rainfall across Brazil’s Center-West region has been limited so far and will need to improve soon to avoid developing drought conditions. Meanwhile, the Brazilian real has weakened further against the U.S. dollar, giving Brazilian soybeans a competitive advantage in the export market.
U.S. harvest progress remains favorable and is expected to continue through the weekend, with above-normal temperatures forecast across much of the country in the 6–15-day outlook.
China’s Agriculture Ministry raised its 2025/26 soybean import estimate to 111.62 million metric tons, up from 109.37 million last year, while leaving its 2026/27 forecast unchanged at 95.5 million metric tons.

Wheat is posting slight gains this morning, finding support following Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga.
December Chicago wheat is up 2-1/4 cents at 5.95 and December Kansas City wheat is also up 2-1/4 cents at 6.36-1/2.
USDA made virtually no changes to the U.S. wheat balance sheet, with ending stocks coming in close to pre-report expectations. The main surprise was higher-than-expected global ending stocks, driven by increased production estimates for Argentina, Australia and Ukraine.
USDA also lowered wheat export estimates for Ukraine by 18% and Russia by 19% compared to the previous season.

Lauren VandenLangenberg