TFM Midday Update 8-12-2020

CORN

September down 0.005 @ 3.11, December down 0.0075 @ 3.2275, March down 0.0125 @ 3.34
Rains earlier this week were beneficial
Forecasts for the next two weeks are mostly cool and dry
Uncertainty regarding lost bushels from storms on Monday
December futures couldn’t hold mid-day surge above 10-day moving average resistance yesterday
Prices briefly tested the 10-day this morning but have since fallen back below
Funds bought 4,000 contracts yesterday

August up 0.04 @ 8.82, September up 0.015 @ 8.72, November up 0.01 @ 8.745
Dry forecasts through the second half of August could impact yield if realized
Strong demand from China lately
Estimates for Brazilian crop are coming down
Meal futures made bullish key reversals this week
November beans have bounced back above the 100-day moving average level and have made successful tests two days in a row
Funds bought 1,000 contracts yesterday

September CHI down 0.0375 @ 4.9125, September KC down 0.025 @ 4.1425, September MPLS unchanged @ 4.9275
Growing concern about the Russian crop size and improving Australian conditions
Egypt bought wheat from Russia yesterday
Talk of grain hoarding in China
CHI futures are consolidating within recent trading ranges
KC and MPLS futures are trying to stabilize just above contract lows
Funds bought 4,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

August lives up 1.60 @ 106.25, October lives up 1.35 @ 109.65, December lives up 0.95 @ 112.62
August feeders up 1.15 @ 145.65, September feeders up 1.92 @ 148.55
Strong cash trend so far this week, beef values trending higher as well
Slower slaughter will add to carcass weights
October lives made their highest close yesterday since early March
Stochastics are a bit overbought
Feeders are testing recent highs from last week

August down 0.37 @ 52.70, October down 1.05 @ 50.77, December down 0.62 @ 52.67
Cash index is higher, pork values have been extremely volatile
Slaughter so far this week is making a big jump over last week
China imports of US pork are expected to decline in the second half of the year
October hogs are trading at a premium to cash vs a normal season tendency to trade at a discount of over 13.00
October hogs fell back below the 100-day moving average yesterday
Prices are currently testing the 50-day moving average support level

Bryan Doherty