TFM Midday Update 8-19-20

CORN

September down 0.015 @ 3.255, December down 0.01 @ 3.4075, March down 0.0075 @ 3.535
Talk of a strong South African crop and improving Ukrainian conditions
Fears taht US refineries may be allowed to circumvent renewable fuel blending mandates
Crop tour not finding many concerning areas though dryness is spreading in Iowa
December futures are trading in the upper third of the day’s range after a successful test of the 50 and 100-day moving average support levels
Stochastics are still overbought

September up 0.0275 @ 9.1475, November up 0.025 @ 9.165, January up 0.0275 @ 9.225
Favorable crop tour reports so far
US export commitments are at their 2nd largest on record for this time of year
Dryness concerns in Iowa and Nebraska
November beans traded at their highest levels this morning since March 5
Overbought stochastics

December CHI up 0.05 @ 5.225, December KC up 0.0675 @ 4.4525, December MPLS up 0.0625 @ 5.1325
US dollar stabilizing near lowest levels since May 2018
Algeria bought 560,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat on Tuesday
CHI futures held the 50-day moving average support early this morning and have bounced through the 20-day moving average resistance
KC futures pushed through the 20-day moving average resistance early on and may test the 50-day moving average resistance
MPLS futures are testing the 50-day moving average resistance level, and a close above would be the first since July 15

August lives up 0.60 @ 107.32, October lives up 0.70 @ 110.55, December lives up 0.45 @ 113.40
August feeders up 0.52 @ 143.75, September feeders up 0.57 @ 146.17
Beef prices are at their highest levels since mid June
Cash cattle have already gained 2.00-3.00 over last week
About 20% of Brazilian meat packing workers have been infected by Covid which is likely to reduce output
October lives are still overbought but have not broken recent highs made on Monday

October up 0.85 @ 52.27, December up 0.52 @ 53.70, February up 0.35 @ 61.47
Cash index is at its highest price since early June
Pork values have been choppy to lower so far this week
China is advancing an African Swine Fever vaccine to the next round of testing with claims of 80% effectiveness
Cheap US dollar should support exports
October hogs are pushing back above the 10 and 100-day moving average resistance levels

Bryan Doherty