CORN

Corn futures are firm this morning, making another new high for the move following a bullish outside day of trade on Wednesday forging their highest levels since March.  Spillover support from beans, which were higher overnight gave corn a 1-14 cent boost moving Dec corn to 3.73.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 800,000 to 1.90 mil tons.  The strong demand keeps the prospects for some momentum underneath the market and favors the bulls and Managed Money that is now long this market.  Reports out of China say the crop could be down by 4%, or 10 MMT due to typhoon damage over the past couple weeks.  This has lifted domestic Chinese corn prices to multi-year highs.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures were up overnight following the strong technical close on Wednesday.  Nov soybean futures closed above the $10.00 level and new contract highs and managed to push through that level overnight, getting to 10.18-1/4 on gains of 7 cents.  Soybean oil made a fresh 8-month high.  While the supply side is still uncertain, strong demand provides lift in the market.  Export sales have been announced the past three days, and rumors on Wednesday has China looking to pick up 15-20 cargoes of U.S. beans for Dec/Jan delivery.  Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 1.50 to 2.80 mil tons for beans, 200,000 to 450,000 tons for new crop meal; and, zero to 30,000 tons for soyoil.

WHEAT

Wheat futures were up 4 to 6 cents overnight, pulled higher by the strength in row crops.  Overall, the wheat complex remains in rather stagnant chart pattern within 25 cent price ranges.  We view the the market as likely staying in consolidation mode since falling off recent highs.  Heavy global supplies keep rallies in check and the demand picture will be key for U.S. wheat prices.  Global weather conditions will also be closely watch for any supply disruptions.  Weekly export sales this morning are expecting 300,000-700,000 metric tons.

CATTLE

Live cattle futures are called flat, or two-sided in early trade as the market seeks overall direction amid a technical picture that is choppy and fundamentals mixed.  Weekly cash trade began to develop on Wednesday with $102-103 trade seen in the south, steady to $1 higher than last week.  Retail values stay soft keeping demand concerns in front of the market.  Maintained strength in grain markets will keep pressure on Feeder cattle prices.

HOGS

Lean hog futures called steady to lower.  Cash strength and the lean hog index is fairly priced with the October contract keeping support in the front month.  December futures saw additional profit taking after last weeks strong rally.  Weekly export sales will be key, as the market is expecting demand to move into the U.S. market with the export ban put on German hogs due to discovery ASF in wild hogs.

Author

Matthew Strelow