CORN
- March flat @ 4.23 & Dec corn flat @ 4.11
- Funds net even in corn – O/I up 265 contracts
- Corn exports are running 65% ahead of last year
- Argentina’s rain for Friday/Saturday integral for summer grain
- Demand continues to drive corn higher – US corn still cheapest globally
- Funds still aggressive – current guess is they are nearing 300K contracts long
SOYBEANS
- Jan up 10 @ 11.79 & Nov up 4 @ 10.63
- Funds net buyers of 8,000 contracts – O/I down 5,100 contracts
- Soybean exports are running 72% ahead of last year
- Brazilian farmers have sown soybeans on 95% of the area, slightly behind last year’s 96%
- AgRural lowered Brazil’s crop to 131.6M mt – still a record crop
- Brazil weather still looks to be improving for many areas in 7-10 day forecast
WHEAT
- Mar CHI up 5 @ 6.01, March KC up 7 @ 5.69, March MPLS up 1 @ 5.68
- Funds net sellers of 17,000 contracts of SRW wheat – O/I down 5,200 contracts
- Wheat exports are running 1% ahead of last year
- Russia likely to try and dominate export market ahead of export taxes on February 15, 2021
- Key growing areas in central Plains & Kansas – 5”+ of snow expected
- Going to need bullish production event to push prices back to recent highs
CATTLE
- Feb LC down 0.12 @ 112.97 & Jan FC up 0.10 @ 140.12
- Vulnerable to more long liquidation selling
- Focus on commercial & noncommercial buyer support redeveloping through Dec
- Today’s slaughter estimate at 120K head
- No cash price developed for LC & @ 136.66 (down 0.45) as of 12/10 for FC cash index
- O/I: -1623 contracts for Feb LC & O/I: +591 contracts for Jan FC
HOGS
- February Hogs up 0.55 @ 66.22 & Feb Pork Cutout up 0.82 @ 76.00
- China’s pig & sow herds are now 90% recovered of normal levels from swine flu
- Temporary bounce for pork supported bounce but weakness ahead
- Hog slaughter estimated at 494K
- Cash lean index @ 64.96 (down 0.39) as of 12/11
- O/I: -764 positions for hogs & pork cutout futures + 44 positions
Author
Amberlee Bratcher