TFM Midday Update 06-24-2021

CORN

Jul down 8 @ 656-1/4 & Dec down 7-1/4 @ 5.28-1/4
Rainfall and more favorable forecasts keep selling pressure in the corn market.
Longer range forecasts staying dry over the next week in the northwestern Plains, and Pacific Northwest
Jul options expiration on Friday will keep the market volatile.
Corn futures challenging key support levels and 100-day moving average, a break lower will bring additional long liquidation.
Funds are continuing to exit long positions with weather and ahead of acres report next week.
DTN National Corn Index closed at $6.51

Jul down 21 @ 13.64 & Nov down 20 @ 12.80-1/4
Rainfall in some key growing areas will help stabilize the crop.
Subsoil moisture remains low throughout the western Midwest and most of the Plains
Today USDA reported private export sales of 123,000 MT of soybeans to China, and 260,000 MT to Unknown Destinations for the 21/22 marketing year.
Rumors of additional China purchases of new crop US soybeans
Funds continue to exit long positions and may be getting close to flat overall.
DTN National Soybean Index closed at $13.51

Jul wheat down 14-1/2 @ 6.46-3/4, Jul KC down 9 @ 6.03, Jul MNPLS up 1/2 @ 8.05-1/4
Wheat market pressured by selling pressure in other grains.
Minneapolis wheat futures remain strong on poor crop conditions and unfavorable long-range forecasts
Spring wheat rating of 27% good to excellent and 37% poor to very poor have led to recent gains
Some soft red wheat areas will get heavy rains which will delay harvest
Yield potential lower due to a dry outlook in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and the Northwest

Aug LC down 0.575 @ 122.300 & Aug FC up 1.250 @ 156.925
Current demand for beef remains strong and may not follow seasonality (beef demand tends to decrease after July 4th)
Boxed beef continues to decline and may eventually affect the willingness of packers to pay higher
Cash cattle traded higher yesterday – some reports as much as $4 higher
Feeder cattle supported by selling pressure in grain markets.
Cattle markets staying choppy into the Cattle on Feed report on Friday afternoon.
Net beef sales in the week ending June 17 totaled a net 16,900 MT, with shipments at 18,200 MT. China took a net 1,600 MT, with shipments of 4,100 MT

Jul hogs down 4.250 @ 100.275 & Jul pork cutout down 5.300 @ 106.125
Traders are cautious about the strength in cash
Sharp drop in pork cutout values keep the selling pressure on the market
Court ruling to slow the slaughter pace at some major packing plants is set to begin July 1
Technical selling and long liquidation continue as the momentum is pushing prices lower.

John Heinberg