TFM Midday Update 06-28-2021

CORN

  • July up 20 @ 6.56 & Dec up 17 @ 5.36
  • Managed money net position: 243,465 contracts long
  • Price of corn continues to drop in most Brazilian regions
  • Dryness continues to central Brazil – still stressing filling corn
  • Recent rains beneficial – 6-10 outlook dry for IA, MN, and NE
  • North Dakota & Minnesota expected to turn hot & dry again
  • O/I: Lost 55,746 positions in July futures

SOYBEANS

  • July up 24 @ 13.54 & Nov up 34 @ 13.04
  • Managed money net position: 80,304 contracts long
  • Soy oil, ethanol credits drop as refiners win US Biofuel case
  • Soybean prices have dropped to the lowest nominal level of the year in Brazil
  • Argentina soy crush from 2021 – crop at 41M mt versus last season’s 38M mt
  • O/I: Lost 72,097 positions in July futures

WHEAT

  • July wheat up 15 @ 6.52, July KC up 20 @ 6.20, July MNPLS up 25 @ 8.48
  • Managed money net position: 3,105 contract long CHI & 14,852 contract long KC
  • Russia wheat exports rise 12% so far this season
  • Rains bringing relief but drought still persists in northern Plains
  • Favorable conditions for winter wheat in EU
  • Some concern that recent heat may have stressed spring wheat in S. Russia
  • O/I: Lost 17,619 positions in July wheat & lost 3,944 positions in KC July wheat

CATTLE

  • Aug LC down 1.02 @ 121.775  & Aug FC down 1.57 @ 157.975
  • Cattle on Feed slightly friendly
  • Limited trade last may indicate packers may need to be more aggressive this wk
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • Feeder Cattle Cash Index for June 24: down 0.20 @ 146.29
  • Open interest lost 1,081 for Aug LC & lost 41 for Aug FC

HOGS

  • Aug hogs up 2.92 @ 108.90 & July pork cutout up 2.32 @ 111.000
  • Hogs oversold last week – using today as a buying opportunity
  • Lower cutouts should stimulate demand & require packers to increase ownership
  • China to start buying pork for reserves amid falling prices
  • Hog slaughter projected at 473K
  • Cash Lean Index for June 23: down 1.97 @ 117.62
  • O/I: Lost 2,097 for July hogs & July pork cutout lost 13 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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