TFM Midday Update 08-05-2021

CORN

  • Sep up 14 @ 5.60 & Dec up 10 @ 5.57
  • Corn exports 830.2K mt for ’22 and 68.2K mt for ‘21
  • Corn exports reported at 830,200 mt for 2021-22
  • DOE: U.S. Ethanol stocks fall 0.4% to 22.649 Bbl
  • Argentine truck strikes over wages halts exports
  • EU corn ethanol crush margins hit 8-year low
  • U.S. fertilizer costs expected to hit near-record highs in 2022
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 8/3, down 6,017 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • Aug up 11 @ 14.14 & Nov up 13 @ 13.39
  • Soybean exports at 424.8K mt for ’22 & 11.4K mt for ‘21
  • Flash sale of 300,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations
  • Soybean exports reported at 424,800 mt for 2021-22
  • Argentine farmer sales of 20/21 soy down 7.7% from last year
  • Palm oil stockpiles to keep climbing despite production slowing
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 8/4, down 2,771 contracts

WHEAT

  • Sep wheat up 2 @ 7.19, Sep KC up 1 @ 6.95, Sep MNPLS up 2 @ 9.05
  • Wheat exports no commitments for ’22 & 308.3K mt for ‘21
  • French 2021/22 wheat shipments outside EU hit decade-low in July
  • Falling Russian production continues to support futures
  • Falling U.S. & Canadian production & EU harvest delays supportive
  • Final crop could be 75-76 mmt in U.S. compared to USDA’s 85 mmt projection
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 8/4, down 661 contracts SRW

CATTLE

  • Aug LC down 0.67 @ 123.37 & Aug FC down 0.72 @ 158.47
  • Packers had to bid up 1.00 higher to obtain cattle
  • Steady weights & tighter supplies later in the year supportive
  • Rise of boxed beef indicates strong demand
  • Weekly exports low at 15,000 mt – down 33% from last week
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • Feeder Cattle Cash Index for Aug 3: down 0.18 @ 155.97

HOGS

  • Oct hogs down 3.00 @ 87.12 & Aug pork cutout down 0.67 @ 122.300
  • Hogs weights are lighter, supplies continue to be of concern
  • Pork exports were strong today at 38,800 mt
  • China showing up as largest buyer today is supportive
  • Market seems to be focused on weakness of cutouts
  • Hog slaughter projected at 472K
  • Cash lean index for Aug 3: up 0.19 @ 111.78

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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