TFM Midday Update 9-23-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 2 @ 5.27
  • The Chinese government has asked local officials to prepare for the eventual fail of massive real-estate corporation Evergrande, which could have ripple effects on the grain markets
  • Ethanol production fell 11,000 bpd last week to 926,000 bpd (ethanol production margins remain strong)
  • Weekly ethanol stocks rose 101,000 barrels to 20.111 million barrels – just above the lowest mid-September level since 2014
  • USDA reported an increase of 14.7 mb of corn export sales
  • January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $9.73 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Nov unchanged @ 12.83
  • A bullish divergence in stochastics may suggest November soybeans could see a rally
  • Weather forecasts remain beneficial for harvest in the Midwest
  • Brazil’s forecast remains mostly dry as plantings begin
  • USDA reported an increase of 33.2 mb of soybean export sales
  • November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of 19.76 per bushel

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 12 @ 7.18, Dec KC up 12 @ 7.18, Dec MNPLS up 13 @ 9.16
  • Talk yesterday that Russia, on January 1, might start quota rationing of their wheat exports
  • Europe has quite a bit less milling wheat this year than normal
  • Wheat is trying to put some premium into the marketplace to try to buy acres
  • We get the stocks report on September 30th – we will see where wheat stocks are (as far as on farm or off farm)
  • World wheat supplies for export are at their lowest level in 8 years
  • USDA reported an increase of 13.1 mb of wheat export sales

CATTLE

  • Oct LC up 0.15 @ 123.425 & Oct FC up 0.475 @ 158.150
  • Cattle on feed report released tomorrow – anticipated to be friendly
  • Expectation for tightening numbers into next year
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 118k
  • Choice cuts down 3.54 & select down 2.51
  • Packers will not bid up due to falling boxed beef
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/22: down 0.20 @153.57

HOGS

  • Oct hogs up 0.725 @ 84.575 & Oct pork cutout up 0.750 @ 100.900
  • National Direct Afternoon report showed a loss of $0.98
  • Cutouts had a gain of $4.16
  • Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report released tomorrow
  • Hogs continue to have a large discount to cash
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/22: down 0.91 @ 92.65

Author

Brandon Doherty

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