TFM Midday Update 09-27-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 13 @ 5.40
  • Movement of grain in the Gulf remains a challenge
  • Central Brazil received some rains over the weekend, but Argentina remains mostly dry
  • Argentina’s corn planting is about 9% done
  • Rains are expected for the southern plains soon
  • Corn continues to hold above support levels despite harvest pressure
  • January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of 9.74 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 11 @ 12.96
  • Concern around China temporarily closing soybean crushing plants continues – unknown how long they will be shut down
  • Also concern in China over a shortage of coal and natural gas, leading to rolling blackouts – possibly slowing their economy
  • Central Brazil received some rains over the weekend and more are expected
  • Early yield reports are lower than expected (though this is anecdotal)

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 2 @ 7.26, Dec KC up 4 @ 7.24, Dec MNPLS up 6 @ 9.22
  • Southwest plains have rains forecasted for this week – should help early winter wheat conditions
  • In the eastern Midwest, there is good soil moisture, but a drier forecast this week should aid in SRW wheat planting progress
  • USDA’s Small Grains Summary will be released on Thursday, with updated wheat production numbers
  • Rumors that China bought Australian and French wheat within the past week

CATTLE

  • Oct LC down 0.275 @ 122.650 & Oct FC down 2.725 @ 154.625
  • Cattle on Feed report showed on-feed numbers higher than estimated, and feeder cattle placements were also above estimates
  • With a bearish report and lower boxed beef, packers will likely not be aggressive buyers this week
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • Choice cuts down 2.28 and select down 0.46
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/27: down 0.51 @ 153.98

HOGS

  • Oct hogs up 1.875 @ 89.150 & Oct pork cutout up 1.800 @ 106.000
  • Hogs & Pigs report was bullish – total hog numbers / kept for marketing both below a year ago
  • The bullish report should generate buying interest
  • National Direct Afternoon report gained $0.40
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/27: down 0.42 @ 91.47

Author

Brandon Doherty

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