TFM Midday Update 10-06-2021

CORN

Dec down 4 @ 5.33
CONAB reported that as of October 2nd, 24% of Brazil’s corn crop was planted (up 21% from a year ago)
Private estimates of US national corn yield are higher than what the USDA reported in September
Starting this weekend, rains are expected in the western Corn Belt
The US ag attaché raised China’s 20/21 corn imports to 30 mmt (vs the USDA estimate of 26 mmt)
The US ag attaché lowered China’s 21/22 corn imports to 20 mmt (vs the USDA estimate of 26 mmt)

Nov down 7 @ 12.44
CONAB estimated the Brazil soybean crop at 135.9 mmt (and 2022 at 143 mmt)
Malaysian palm oil remains at record high prices
China is trying to ship palm oil vessels to plants – soybean processing plants remain closed there
China will return from their Golden Week holiday on Friday
Brazil October soybean exports are at 2.6 mmt (23% higher than a year ago)

Dec wheat up 2 @ 7.47, Dec KC up 5 @ 7.46, Dec MNPLS up 9 @ 9.34
Australia is experiencing dryness in some wheat areas – this could negatively impact yield
Wheat will require higher input costs (as will corn)
The Russian Ag Minister stated that their wheat exports will be 37.5 mmt vs a trade guess of 31.5 mmt
Russia is still talking about export restrictions starting in February to combat food inflation
It is possible that Argentina will implement a ban on wheat exports

Oct hogs down 1.050 @ 89.925 & Oct pork cutout down 1.375 @ 109.025
There is a large gap on the charts below current levels
Cash and cutouts have not supported the rally of hog futures
This year supply may not be as high as usual, but the supply of hogs for slaughter usually increases this time of year
National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.75
Hog slaughter projected at 478K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/6: up 0.06 @ 94.11

Brandon Doherty