CORN
Corn futures were mostly unchanged overnight. Dec corn, at 5.63 is 25 cents for the week while sitting atop a nearly 2-1/2 month high. The dollar fell hard to a one-month low on Thursday, but is seeing an upward correction, so far today. Crude was down, too yesterday and has since recovered all of that drawdown going into today’s month-end session, while maintaining an uptrend and supporting corn. Having been in the black the past 5 sessions, corn futures look to consolidate today as traders balance accounts going into the new month. Underlying strength, though stays in place as countries like Europe and Brazil join the U.S. in potential plans for fewer corn acres in 2022 due to rising fertilizer costs.
SOYBEANS
The soy complex is firm this morning. Nov beans are up 4-1/4 cents to 12.38, up 18 cents for the week, but still rangebound for the month of October. The soybean meal futures market has posted a strong recovery off of its $309.30 per ton low at the middle of October. It has since jumped back up to over $330 per ton and has held over that level two days in a row. Grain dealers report spot basis bids for soybeans firmed at U.S. processors on Thursday, supported by strong demand for soymeal. Canadian canola futures are making all-time highs and offering support to the complex. In addition, Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 102 ringgit (+2.07%) at 5031 headed for its biggest monthly gain since July on expectations that tight supplies that have spurred a global edible oil rally will persist in the coming months. Chinese Jan bean futures were up 57 yuan ; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil up 108; Palm oil up 160; Corn up 20.
WHEAT
Winter wheat futures were down 4 to 7 cents overnight, Spring wheat mixed. Dec Chicago wheat, down 4-1/2 cents this morning to 7.68 did match Thursday’s new high for the move at 7.80 before slumping lower, and for the week is up 12 cents. Dec KC wheat etched a new contract high for the second time this week on Thursday at 7.97, and is down 7 cents this morning to 7.83. For the week and month, the contract is up 9 cents and 51-1/4 cents, respectively. Dec MPLS wheat is fractionally lower at 10.37. For the week the contract is up 24 cents with Tuesday’s new contract high drawn at 10.47. Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were steady on Thursday for wheat across the U.S. Southern Plains, grain dealers said. Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), on Thursday issued an international tender to purchase about 655,000 tons of wheat.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called steady to lower following strong selling pressure on Thursday, influenced by the expiration of the October Feeder and Live contracts. Feeder cattle finished with moderate to strong losses on the session, besides the front month October. October completed its trading life closing .175 higher to 156.675. The unwinding and movement in positions before expiration can influence the market. The buy cattle/sell hog spreads appear to be inverting, as the spread between the Dec Live cattle and Dec Lean hogs spread saw a 4.350 move in the opposite direction. Cash trade looks mostly complete for the week, with the exception of a few clean up trades. The range on the week was $125-127, with $126 catching most business, trading higher $1-2 higher than last week. Midday retail values were mixed, but prices closed firmer as Choice carcasses gained 1.26 to 284.89 and Select gained .95 to 262.64. The load count was light at 130 loads. USDA reported net weekly beef export sales of 19,200 MT, up 39% from the 4-week average. South Korea & China were the largest buyers at 6,200 MT & 4,500 MT, respectively. The lack of follow through strength to end the week is concerning as prices dropped off the previous day’s highs. The end of the week and month today may be key to today’s price action.
HOGS
Hogs are called steady to higher. Buyers poured into the hog market on Thursday, as a strong move higher in retail values triggered some value buying and short covering in an oversold market. December hog futures tested the $72.00 price support, which triggered a round of value buying. Dec futures rallied to the 10-day moving average. Prices closed at the top of the trading range, which could open the door for additional buying support for the end of the week and month. A strong move higher in pork carcass values adds to the buying strength. At midday, the retail pork carcass prices jumped higher, gaining 7.28. Strong buying was noted in the ham and belly cuts, providing most of the gains. Closing prices stayed positive, finishing .53 to 94.00 on movement of 262 loads. Weekly export sales posted new net sales of 29,500 MT reported for 2021. This total was up 41% over last week, but down 1% from the 4-weel average. Mexico and Japan were the top buyers of U.S. pork last week. China stayed absent from the report, which likely disappointed the market.
Author
Matthew Strelow