TFM Midday Update 11-1-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 12 @ 5.80
  • Corn exports are still down 16% from last year
  • Ethanol production last week was at 1.016 million barrels per day
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 28% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted
  • January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10.36 per bushel
  • Corn has closed higher for the past 6 sessions, and may be 7 today

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 6 @ 12.42
  • The Biden administration has proposed a $1 billion investment in biofuels over 10 years
  • Excess moisture in the eastern Midwest may slow harvest
  • Soybeans are about 50% planted in Brazil
  • US soybean exports are down 41% from last year
  • Soybean yields could be increased on the Nov 9 WASDE report

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 24 @ 7.97, Dec KC up 20 @ 8.06, Dec MNPLS up 24 @ 10.76
  • Drought remains a worry in some winter wheat areas
  • Wheat continues its upward trend despite being technically overbought
  • Paris milling wheat futures have come within 7 Euros of the all time high (the equivalent of 22 cents per bushel)
  • Egypt is tendering for wheat, partly driving the market

CATTLE

  • Dec LC up 0.450 @ 129.725 Apr FC down 0.375 @ 160.425
  • Cash is expected to trade higher this week
  • Packers need cattle to fulfill brisk chain speed
  • A bottom may be in place for boxed beef
  • Choice cuts up 0.83 and select up 0.73
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/29: up 0.92 @ 155.88

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 0.150 @ 78.525 & Feb pork cutout up 0.200 @ 92.200
  • December and February have gaps in the charts above current levels, which may be filled at some point
  • Packers have been able to attain the desired supplies without much difficulty
  • Some would argue the hog market established a double bottom on the charts
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.82
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/1: down 0.81 @ 79.89

Author

Brandon Doherty

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