CORN
Corn futures were up 2 cents overnight putting the nearby Dec contract at 5.77-1/4 and March at 5.83-1/2. The front month corn contract has not closed above the 5.80 mark since early July and this marks the fourth time this month the December contract has traded above 5.80 during trading hours and subsequently, closed back beneath it on Wednesday. This puts corn at a bit of a do or die crossroads from a technical standpoint. Fundamentally, the outside markets are working against corn with lower energy markets and a higher dollar. The dollar is down in a correction from new highs posted early yesterday. This may be giving the grain and oilseed complex an ‘outside market’ boost this morning. In addition, we’ll get Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 AM CT. Trade estimates for corn are 750,000 to 1.40 mil tons. Around the globe, periodic showers will limit remaining harvest in the U.S. Midwest. Drier conditions in Ukraine and southwest Russia are seen benefiting remaining harvest. Favorable conditions for corn planting and establishment in Brazil is occurring with recent showers benefiting corn planting and establishment in Argentina. Isolated showers aid corn planting in South Africa.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures traded higher overnight led by another round of fund buying in soymeal this week following an early-week setback. The nearby Dec meal contract is trading at its highest point since July 2. Beans, too are testing resistance as long-term charts illustrate bullish reversals. Chinese Ag futures overnight were down 2 yuan in Jan beans; Soymeal was up 25; Soyoil up 76; Palm oil up 116; Corn down 2. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 99 ringgit (+2.02%) at 4998 on expectations that Malaysian stockpiles will shrink this month as exports expand and output declines. Trade estimates for Weekly Export Sales for beans are 1.0 to 1.60 mil tons. Meal sales are estimated 100,000 to 300,000 tons. Weather-wise: Periodic showers will limit remaining harvest in the Midwest. A front with scattered showers in the Delta this weekend may cause brief delays to the remaining soybean harvest there. Favorable conditions for soybean planting and establishment are seen in Brazil with recent showers benefiting soybean planting and establishment in Argentina. Some showers popping up in northern India may cause delays.
WHEAT
Winter wheat futures are making new highs this morning with March Chicago up 14-1/4 cents to a new peak at 8.47-1/4. March KC rose 11-3/4 cents to set a new high of 8.48.1/4. March MPLS wheat is up 14-1/2 cents to 10.45. The December Chicago wheat contract closed 12 cents higher yesterday, but 12-3/4 cents off the daily high, which was a new 12-year high on the continuous chart at 8.35. The markets may be pushing too hard into overbought territory given the action in the dollar, but higher global prices have been a continual source of support. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 250.000 to 500,000 tons.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called steady to higher as prices consolidate in a narrow 2-week trading range. Feb live cattle, at 136.40 is stuck inside Tuesday’s range, but with a higher bias while poised to post bullish reversals across the board. In addition, all contracts through Dec of 2022 are trading above their respective moving averages. Expectations for tomorrow afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report have Placements in October at 102.2%, Marketings at 96.3%; And, On Feed as of Nov 1 at 99.9%. Cash trade, so far this week has been light and mostly steady with last week.
HOGS
Hogs are called mixed after an uneven finish on Wednesday. Feb hogs, at 83.15 were down slightly, but are now above 100-day moving average resistance. April hogs are at 87.52 going into today’s trade after settling slightly higher. Cash has been under pressure again this week, keeping then nearby Dec futures down. The contract lost 1.55 yesterday to 76.17. Tighter supply forecasts for Q1 2022 keeps a bid under that part of the complex. Ham prices have been very volatile as the holidays approach, trading as high as $94 last week and $67 on Wednesday.
Author
Matthew Strelow