CORN
Corn futures were down 2 to 3 cents overnight putting the nearby Dec contract at 5.71 and March at 5.76-1/2. The dollar is up sharply this morning and putting some pressure on the grain and oilseed complex. For the week, March corn down 9 cents and in an sideways consolidation phase. In each of the last two sessions, Dec corn has risen above 5.82, only to fail and fall back as resistance holds the rally in check until more bullish news is found. Argentina is becoming drier, but conditions in Brazil are still favorable. Periodic showers in the U.S Midwest are seen limiting remaining harvest. Drier conditions in Ukraine and southwest Russia is aiding remaining harvest. Favorable conditions for corn planting and establishment in South America is noted; And, isolated showers are benefiting corn planting in South Africa.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are off a nickel this morning to 12.60-1/4 (Jan), but up 15 cents for the week. Meal is firm and oil weaker. Some technicals are getting into overbought territory with soybean meal after the recent rally, so a correction could be expected as a volatile week comes to a close. Chinese Jan bean futures overnight were up 3 yuan ; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 152; Corn up 17; Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 5 ringgit (-0.10%) at 4993. Spot basis values for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast and loaded for export were steady to higher on Thursday, with nearby values firming on seasonally strong demand and tight loading capacity through the end of the year, traders said. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released their weekly report on website stating that 2021-22 Soybean planting advanced to 28.6% complete from 18.8% in previous week with planted area pegged at 16.5 mil hectares.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are firm this morning with the March contracts up 2 to 3 cents across the complex. March CBOT wheat, at 8.32-3/4, is up 4-1/2 cents on the week. March KC, at 8.33-1/2, is down 2 cents this week. Both contracts are leveling off within this week’s higher trading ranges after establishing new highs on Thursday. March MPLS wheat is at 10.22 and down 24 cents this week while showing signs of putting in a top as a pennant forms on the daily chart. A 44 point hike in the dollar overnight keeps the currency pointed higher on the charts, but curiously, grain prices are also on the rise rather than moving the opposite direction. Global wheat stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 274 mil tons, down from an October estimate of 276 mil, the London-based International Grains Council said Thursday in a report. Inventories in major exporters could be at a nine-year low, it said. World buyers are going hand-to-mouth buying only what they need at this time. Egypt just bought wheat at $7 per ton higher than their previous purchase price. Eastern Australia is set to get more rain, thus raising concern about the wheat quality in that area.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called steady to higher after yesterday’s breakout to the upside. Feb cattle closed higher at 137.25 and are up about 1.00 on the week. Jan Feeders had a strong close to 161.375 and are up 3.65 this week including yesterday’s gain of 2.45. Cash sales have picked up as the week wore on with packers pushing bids as high as $134/cwt, $1 to $2 higher than last week. Expectations for this Cattle on Feed report have Placements in October at 102.2%, Marketings at 96.3%; And, On Feed as of Nov 1 at 99.9%.
HOGS
Hogs are called mixed after an uneven finish the past two days. Feb hogs, at 83.30 are up 2.75 this week while holding onto Wednesday’s rally. Tighter supply forecasts for Q1 2022 is helping the back months charge into new highs. Nearby Dec hogs have fallen apart to end the week led by a collapse in ham and cutout values falling to their lowest level since Feb 5. Weak exports to China haven’t helped. For the rest of the complex, look for choppy trade to develop ahead of the weekend now that many contracts have shot higher and into overbought territory.
Author
Matthew Strelow