CORN
- Dec corn down 6 @ 5.81
- Concern about new Covid variant impacted the markets Friday but corn was able to recover
- USDA may have to raise ethanol 100 mb, which would drop the carryout
- Corn exports are still running behind the pace to meet the USDA’s forecast
- China took a cargo of corn from the US last week
- Corn is well supported at current price levels
SOYBEANS
- January soybeans down 6 @ 12.47
- US crush margins are favorable
- Soybean exports are still running behind the pace to meet the USDA’s forecast
- $13 seems to be overpriced for soybeans – support around $12.40
- Two week South American forecast is turning drier for southern Brazil and eastern Argentina (La Nina may be starting to kick in)
- January soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $17.75 per bushel
WHEAT
- Dec wheat down 13 @ 8.13, Dec KC down 10 @ 8.55, Dec MNPLS down 9 @ 10.31
- Winter wheat crop conditions may decline today (US has been mostly dry)
- There is global concern around availability of high quality milling wheat – should support MPLS futures
- Australia is getting a break from heavy rains this week (which have impacted wheat quality)
- Wheat export commitments as of Nov 18 are the lowest since 2015
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s wheat crop estimate to 20.3 mmt (vs the USDA’s 20 mmt)
CATTLE
- Dec cattle up 0.525 @ 138.625 & Jan FC up 0.950 @ 168.100
- Cattle market did not seem to care about news of the new Covid variant
- Packers were aggressive last week
- Choice cuts up 0.90 and select down 1.19
- Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/26: down 0.35 @ 157.48
HOGS
- Dec hogs down 0.225 @ 72.975 & Dec pork cutouts down 0.650 @ 87.275
- Unlike cattle, hogs did not react well to news of the new Covid strain
- Hog weights have increased – plentiful supply
- National Direct Afternoon report decreased 0.53
- Hog slaughter projected at 480K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 11/29: down 0.93 @ 71.63
Author
Brandon Doherty