TFM Midday Update 1-4-2022

CORN

Mar corn up 16 @ 6.05
Corn inspections totaled 23.5 mb for the week with total inspections now at 508 mb
Strength in the US dollar yesterday may have weighed on commodities, including corn
Talk that Argentina will see a 52 mmt corn crop (vs the USDA’s 54.5 mmt)
Despite recent showers, more ridging and higher temperatures are expected in Argentina and southern Brazil

Jan soybeans up 26 @ 13.70
Soybean inspections totaled 43.8 mb for the week with total inspections now at 1,113 mb
The Parana ag minister stated that their soybean yields could be down by 39% (the equivalent of 10 mmt)
StoneX decreased their Brazilian soybean production estimate by 11 mmt to 134 mmt
Palm oil is up for the third consecutive day and near contract highs

Mar wheat up 7 @ 7.65, Mar KC up 7 @ 7.99, Mar MNPLS up 3 @ 9.71
Wheat inspections totaled 5.2 mb for the week with total inspections now at 444 mb
Winter wheat conditions for select states were released by the USDA and were significantly lower than the last rating (ex: Kansas rated only 33% good to excellent vs 51% last month)
Higher US Dollar, low export pace, and uncompetitive US prices weighed on the wheat market yesterday
Recent reports suggest Australia and Argentina will have wheat production numbers greater than December WASDE estimates

Feb LC down 1.400 @ 137.525 & Mar FC down 3.050 @ 166.475
The market should be supported by the anticipation of higher cash this week
The surge of the omicron virus may have an impact on the supply chain, food service industry, and slaughter pace
Both live cattle and feeder cattle charts gapped lower to open the session
Choice cuts up 0.77 and select up 0.67
Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/3: up 0.14 @ 165.35

Feb hogs up 0.650 @ 81.775 & Feb pork cutout up 0.775 @ 93.975
Uncertainty still surrounds California’s Prop 12
Pork demand could show a seasonal slowdown
Hog futures opened lower but charts are posting a bullish key reversal at midday
National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.22
Hog slaughter projected at 474K
CME Lean Hog Index for 1/4: up 0.10 @ 71.85

Brandon Doherty