CORN
- Mar corn down 5 @ 5.98
- USDA reported an increase of 10.1 mb of corn export sales
- Late next week the GFS model shows rains in Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil
- Argentina could see 115-degree temperatures and subsoil moisture is limited
- Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.048 million barrels per day last week
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange still has Argentina’s corn production at 57 mmt (though some private analysts have lower numbers)
SOYBEANS
- March soybeans down 18 @ 13.66
- USDA reported an increase of 14.1 mb of soybean export sales
- South American weather may be worse than what the market is trading
- Yesterday, soybean oil closed at the highest level since November 29
- The hawkish Fed comments yesterday are pressuring the market – interest rates may be raised as soon as March
- Northern Brazil has been getting too much rain
WHEAT
- Mar wheat down 22 @ 7.39, Mar KC down 24 @ 7.63, Mar MNPLS down 21 @ 9.28
- USDA reported an increase of 1.8 mb of wheat export sales
- Some snow cover across the US Southern Plains
- Kazakhstan is the world’s 8th largest wheat exporter – civil unrest is becoming an issue for political reasons
- US exports have been poor and prices are uncompetitive to world buyers – this is weighing on the market
CATTLE
- Feb LC down 0.525 @ 136.725 & Mar FC down 0.600 @ 165.575
- Cash this week lacks the strength seen in recent weeks, pressuring the market
- Higher feed prices are a concern for feedlots
- Chart gaps remain above current levels and may need to be filled
- Choice cuts up 0.11 and select up 0.38
- Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/5: down 0.22 @ 162.13
HOGS
- Feb hogs up 1.350 @ 83.625 & Feb pork cutout up 1.075 @ 95.000
- Hog futures continue the uptrend – June and later contracts posted new highs
- Prop 12 fears may have subsided as demand remains strong
- There is concern around a slower slaughter pace offsetting tighter supplies
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.73
- Hog slaughter projected at 471K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 1/6: up 1.12 @ 73.87
Author
Brandon Doherty