CORN
- Mar corn up 1 @ 6.11
- Funds may have been bought yesterday to hedge against inflation
- December ’22 corn made a new contract high yesterday at 5.65-3/4
- May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $10.96 per bushel
- Ukraine reportedly has 20 mmt of corn left to ship between now and July – conflict with Russia is a bullish factor
SOYBEANS
- Mar soybeans up 26 @ 14.17
- Argentina is getting rains but Paraguay and southern Brazil are dry
- Soybean oil is higher, led by palm oil (Indonesia wants to include more palm oil in their biodiesel)
- USDA’s Brazil attaché lowered their soybean production estimate to 136 mmt vs the USDA’s 139 mmt
- There are rumors of China buying new crop soybeans (but this is unconfirmed)
WHEAT
- Mar wheat up 1 @ 7.97, Mar KC up 2 @ 8.02, Mar MNPLS up 3 @ 9.43
- U.S. southern Plains remain dry – not as critical as if it were spring, but may be putting some weather premium into the marketplace
- Paris milling wheat futures are lower but have not yet filled the gaps created yesterday
- The Russia/Ukraine situation remains a major headline with bullish potential for wheat as shipping and sales could be disrupted
- Taiwan bought about 50,000 mt of U.S. milling from the Pacific Northwest
CATTLE
- Feb LC down 0.275 @ 138.275 & Mar FC down 1.200 @ 164.425
- Chart gaps (most apparent in feeders) remain above current levels and may need to be filled
- No change expected in cash for the remainder of the week
- Consumers are stocking up on beef
- Strong boxed beef should keep packers aggressive
- Choice cuts up 2.11 and select up 2.04
- Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/19: down 0.06 @ 161.24
HOGS
- Feb hogs up 0.800 @ 83.100 & Feb pork cutout up 0.675 @ 94.000
- Strong demand by packers and consumers is helping the market
- Consumers are stocking up on pork
- The strong rally in hogs is leading futures to become overbought, which could lead to a price correction
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.09
- Hog slaughter projected at 456K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 1/20: up 0.07 @ 76.85
Author
Brandon Doherty