CORN
Corn futures were mixed overnight and are mostly unchanged from Friday’s settlements this morning. May corn is fractionally higher to 6.51-1/4. Dec corn is up a penny to 5.95-3/4. In outside markets, the dollar is up to a two-week high, crude is down slightly, and stock index futures are down 200 points. Weekly Export Inspections will be out later this morning. Ukraine has complained that Russia’s Navy maneuvers had stopped their grain vessels from leaving their ports. Ukraine may have 700 mil bu of corn to export this market year. Technically, the corn market remains situated in an over-bought state which could support reversal action if prices weaken. First support today for May corn is around 6.40. In the report released on Feb. 10, Conab estimated the Brazilian 2020/21 crop of corn at 112.34 million tons, 600 thousand tons lower than that previously reported, but still the highest in all times.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are moderately lower this morning with May beans off 6-1/2 cents to 15.79-3/4, and Nov down 1-1/4 cents to 14.42-3/4. May bean meal is down $5 per ton to 449. May soyoil is up .27 to 65.93. Talk of a drier Argentina two-week weather forecast offers support, however, some watchers stress the maps may be overdone. Brazilian producers reaped 25.6% of the 2021/22 soybean crop by Feb. 11, consulting firm Safras & Mercados said in an emailed report. Harvest is ahead of the pace seen a year ago, when 17.1% of the 2020/21 crop had been reaped, and is also advanced compared with a 5-year average of 16.2%. Lower World soybean supplies and higher demand should buoy prices this week, though high volatility remains a likely scenario. U.S. soybean processors likely crushed a record volume of soybeans for a second straight month in January, encouraged by good soy product demand and strong margins, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due tomorrow. Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export were weaker in nearby loading positions on Friday as futures prices rallied, while bids for loadings later this year held steady on good demand, traders said. Chinese (May) bean futures overnight were down 39 yuan; Soymeal down 47; Soyoil up 60; Palm oil up 162; Corn up 1; Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 99 ringgit (+1.78%) at 5672.
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WHEAT
Wheat futures were firm overnight. May Chicago wheat was up 6 cents to 8.10. May KC wheat is up 8-1/2 cents this morning to 8.35-1/2. May MPLS Spring wheat is up 7 cents to 9.64-1/2. There is evidence that Russia could invade Ukraine mid-week. Ukraine has complained that Russia’s Navy maneuvers had stopped their grain vessels from leaving their ports. EU and Black Sea wheat prices are the lowest to grain buyers and U.S. wheat export prices are a premium to both EU and Black Sea. Look for wheat futures to be a ‘follower’ unless Russia invades Ukraine and new export business comes to the U.S., or dry U.S. south Plains weather continues into the spring. Meanwhile, another push higher in the dollar overnight may create headwinds for wheat today.
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called mixed. Futures are showed reversal action to finish out the week last week. The bearish cross over on the charts points to choppy action to start the week as traders make up their minds about the short term trend. April live cattle peaked at 148.70 on Thursday and is already 2.50 off that high. First support lines up at 144.90 and then 144.10. Feeders finished last week lower, too, setting up the prospect for a deeper reversal should prices continue to struggle.
HOGS
Hog futures are called steady to weaker as topping action weighs on sentiment. The market will need a steady flow of bullish information in order to stop, or slow the effects of bearish key reversals last week. The futures’ premium over cash remains at a higher than normal level despite a strong pork market. The pork cutout values at mid-session Friday were up $12.47. April hogs closed at 102.22 on Friday and have a downside technical objective of 100.77. On the upside, resistance is around 103.12 and 104.40.
Author
Matthew Strelow