TFM Midday Update 2-14-2022

CORN

  • Mar corn down 4 @ 6.47
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop to 51.0 mmt (vs the USDA’s 54 mmt)
  • Corn production of Brazil and Argentina combined is estimated at 168.0 mmt (a record large amount) – this compares to 138.5 mmt last year, and a record of 153 mmt in 19/20
  • Argentina is expected to remain mostly dry for the next 10 days
  • May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.09 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Mar soybeans down 18 @ 15.65
  • The USDA lowered China’s soybean imports 3 mmt (to 97 mmt) for the 21/22 marketing year
  • CONAB is estimating Brazilian soybean production at 125.4 mmt (vs the USDA’s 134 mmt)
  • USDA reduced Paraguay’s soybean production to 6.3 mmt (which would be the lowest production since 11/12)

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WHEAT

  • Mar wheat down 7 @ 7.91, Mar KC down 5 @ 8.19, Mar MNPLS down 3 @ 9.58
  • Wheat markets surged on Friday after reports that Russia intends to invade Ukraine this week
  • President Biden talked with Putin and Zelensky (Ukraine’s president) over the weekend but there were no diplomatic breakthroughs
  • Ukrainian shipping vessels have been disrupted by Russian Naval exercises

CATTLE

  • Apr LC up 0.225 @ 146.400 & Mar FC up 0.975 @ 167.200
  • Cattle slaughter pace is getting back to normal – packers may need to purchase more to keep up
  • High feed prices remain a concern for feedlots
  • Choice cuts down 0.30 and select down 1.12
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/11: down 0.09 @ 162.64

HOGS

  • Apr hogs up 0.225 @ 102.450 & Apr pork cutout up 0.350 @ 109.825
  • Feb hogs expire today
  • Cutouts increased 8.48 on Friday – indicates strong demand
  • April has a large premium to cash
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.28
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 2/14: up 1.18 @ 88.92

Author

Brandon Doherty

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