CORN
- Mar corn down 18 @ 6.38
- Corn inspections pegged at 57.3 mb with total inspections now at 790 mb
- President Zelensky of Ukraine stated yesterday that Russia would attack on February 16 – he later said this was a joke
- Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 27% complete (vs 18% last week)
- Argentina forecast remains mostly dry for the next 10 days
SOYBEANS
- Mar soybeans down 14 @ 15.56
- Soybean inspections pegged at 42.4 mb with total inspections now at 1.426 bb
- Paraguay’s ag minister said their soybean crop could be as low as 5.0 mmt compared to 9.9 mmt last year (USDA is at 6.3 mmt)
- January NOPA crush expected at 186.7 mb (vs 184.7 mb a year ago)
- Crude oil is lower, weighing on soybean oil
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WHEAT
- Mar wheat down 22 @ 7.77, Mar KC down 26 @ 8.03, Mar MNPLS down 23 @ 9.43
- Wheat inspections pegged at 16 mb with total inspections now at 532 mb
- The Black Sea conflict is causing increased volatility
- Reports that some Russian troops may be pulled back from Belarus after completing their exercises (other units may be moving forward)
- Weather fronts expected to move across the US southern plains could bring some moisture (though most looks like it will hit eastern HRW wheat areas)
CATTLE
- Apr LC up 0.350 @ 146.700 & Mar FC up 1.775 @ 168.650
- Live cattle tested support levels yesterday and rebounded, with follow through today
- Packers already have some cattle contracted ahead
- A decline in grain prices may support cattle
- Choice cuts down 0.56 and select up 0.92
- Cattle slaughter projected at 115K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/14: up 0.52 @ 163.16
HOGS
- Apr hogs up 2.175 @ 104.500 & Apr pork cutout up 1.350 @ 111.550
- Long liquidation may have run its course
- April is now the front month and has a large premium to cash
- With increasing slaughter pace, packers may bid more aggressively
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.15
- Hog slaughter projected at 476K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 2/15: up 1.59 @ 90.51
Author
Brandon Doherty