CORN
- May corn up 18 @ 7.44
- Reports from the Russians that yesterday’s peace talks broke down, but they will continue to talk
- Ukraine wants the Russian troops out of the country and is not willing to give up territory
- Russians will reportedly allow vessels to leave Ukrainian ports (but they did not talk about allowing vessels into those ports)
- Avian flu is a growing problem in the US
- Pre report estimates have corn stocks at 7,885 mb (vs 7,696 last year) and acreage at 92 million (vs 93.4 last year)
SOYBEANS
- May soybeans up 30 @ 16.73
- USDA reported sales of 128,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 22/23 marketing year
- Still concern about China’s economy and commodity imports due to covid outbreaks and lockdowns
- Rumors that on yesterday’s selloff, China purchased 9-12 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil and the US
- Pre report estimates have soybean stocks at 1,893 mb (vs 1,562 last year) and acreage at 88.8 million (vs 87.2 last year)
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WHEAT
- May wheat up 20 @ 10.34, May KC up 23 @ 10.48, May MNPLS up 18 @ 10.61
- With mines in the waters of many Ukrainian ports, as well as the destruction of elevators, there are still logistical concerns about moving grain (even if the Russians let vessels pass)
- Concerns still exist about wheat exports not meeting the USDA’s goals (especially in Europe / the Black Sea)
- There have been some showers in the eastern HRW areas but the 8-14 day forecast suggests warm and dry conditions returning to the US southern plains
- Pre report estimates have wheat stocks at 1,064 mb (vs 1,311 last year) and acreage at 47.8 million (vs 46.7 last year)
CATTLE
- Apr LC down 0.475 @ 140.425 & Apr FC down 0.775 @ 163.575
- Higher futures yesterday may have been in part due to declining grain prices
- Market may have already factored in the bearish Cattle on Feed report
- Domestic demand remains strong
- Choice cuts up 0.63 and select down 1.48
- Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/29: up 0.18 @ 155.29
HOGS
- Apr hogs down 0.875 @ 105.175 & Apr pork cutout down 0.300 @ 109.700
- Hogs and Pigs report to be released this afternoon – pre-report estimates: all hogs & pigs at 98.8%, kept for breeding at 100.1%, marketings at 98.7%
- Lower cash and cutouts yesterday were unsupportive
- National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.96
- Hog slaughter projected at 478K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 3/30: up 0.63 @ 103.56
Author
Brandon Doherty