TFM Midday Update 04-11-2022

CORN

May corn up 3 @ 7.72
Private exporters reported sales of 1.02 mmt of corn for delivery to China (680,000 for delivery during the 21/22 marketing year and 340,000 during 22/23)
Argentina’s corn production could be further reduced (the WASDE report left it unchanged at 53 mmt)
December corn is at contract highs
Cool and wet weather is forecasted to move across the eastern Corn Belt
The USDA’s estimate of Ukraine corn exports is likely still too high despite lowering it by 4.5 mmt (to 23 mmt)

May soybeans down 27 @ 16.62
The USDA did lower soybean carryout, but some analysts think it could be even smaller
Argentina’s soybean production was unchanged at 43.5 mmt on the WASDE report, despite expectations for it to be lowered
Soybeans are being pressured by lower soybean oil and lower crude oil
The WASDE report showed a decline in Chinese soy imports by 3 mmt

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May wheat up 38 @ 10.89, May KC up 48 @ 11.55, May MNPLS up 28 @ 11.55
Many Middle Eastern and North African wheat buyers have switched to buying new crop instead of old crop, hoping for lower prices
Russian artillery attacked Odessa over the weekend and they are amassing troops in the east
Global ending stocks for wheat are at a five year low (278.4 mmt)
Russia is shipping wheat but did raise its export tax to $101.40 per metric ton (from $96.10)
New crop Paris milling wheat futures are at contract highs

Jun LC down 0.175 @ 133.65 & May FC down 1.450 @ 157.925
Cash was steady last week, but not expected to hold this week
Markets closed Friday and packers have some contracted ahead
USDA increased their estimate of beef production by 140 million pounds on the WASDE report
Choice cuts down 0.93 and select down 0.89
Cattle slaughter projected at 123K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/8: up 0.42 @ 156.01

Jun hogs down 0.350 @ 114.225 & Jun pork cutout unchanged @ 121.625
USDA decreased their pork production estimate by 240 million pounds on the WASDE report
Futures may be building support
Deferred contracts have gaps above the market which may need to be filled eventually
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.57
Hog slaughter projected at 476K
CME Lean Hog Index for 4/11: down 0.62 @ 100.06

Brandon Doherty