CORN
- May corn up 2 @ 8.06
- GFS model shows dryness in central Brazil which could impact the 2nd (safrinha) corn crop
- Corn might trade sideways for a while unless there is a change in export demand
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered their estimate of world GDP from 4.4% to 3.6%
- Storms this week in the US are forecasted to bring precipitation to the Dakotas, eastern corn belt, and the Delta
SOYBEANS
- May soybeans up 12 @ 17.28
- July soybeans have resistance around the $17 level
- July soybean oil prices remain near record highs and are a motivation for crushers
- China’s economy may be having trouble due to rising covid cases, raising concern about their import demand
- May soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $22.43 per bushel
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WHEAT
- May wheat down 23 @ 10.76, May KC down 22 @ 11.49, May MNPLS down 10 @ 11.59
- Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show dry weather across most of the US southern plains
- According to Reuters, 11 million people (1 in 4 Ukrainians) have been displaced by the war, which raises questions about labor availability
- Russia is said to be launching a new offensive in eastern Ukraine
- Egypt has approved India as an origin for wheat and India must meet strict quality specs (Egypt got 80% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine last year)
CATTLE
- Jun LC up 1.300 @ 137.875 & May FC up 2.125 @ 162.900
- Cattle on Feed report out Friday
- Higher cash this week
- Packers may be less aggressive in coming weeks if boxed beef does not perform well
- Choice cuts down 1.15 and select down 0.25
- Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/19: down 0.13 at 154.49
HOGS
- Jun hogs down 1.675 @ 119.65 & Jun pork cutout down 1.350 @ 125.850
- Consumer demand remains strong
- May futures are at a significant premium to the index
- Hogs likely need to see strength in cutouts before traders become more bullish
- National Direct Afternoon report increased 4.35
- Hog slaughter projected at 478K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 4/20: down 0.35 @ 99.98
Author
Brandon Doherty