TFM Midday Update 5-12-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 3 @ 7.91
Corn export sales of 7.6 mb for 21/22 at marketing year low, down 75% from last week and down 80% from prior 4-week average
USDA has reported that 612,000 mt of corn has been sold to China- 68,000 mt for 21/22 and 544,000 mt for 22/23
There is uncertainty going into today’s WASDE report regarding how many changes the USDA will make
New crop ending stocks are estimated to be down to 1.305 bb, the second lowest in eight years if confirmed

Jul soybeans up 1 @ 16.08
Soybean export sales of 5.3 mb for 21/22 at marketing year low, down 80% from last week and 74% from prior 4-week average
Soybeans are lower with a drop in soybean oil, which has been the more bullish source of support for beans
Lower prices of canola, palm oil, and crude are dragging bean oil lower related to the bearish mood in outside markets
Today’s WASDE report will provide clarity on potentially lower ending stocks and increased production

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Jul wheat up 12 @ 11.25, Jul KC up 12 @ 12.11, & Jul MNPLS up 8 @ 12.64
Wheat export sales of 0.5 mb for 21/22 and 4.6 mb for 22/23
Wheat export commitments now total 714 mb for 21/22 and are down 24% from a year ago, which is below estimated pace
All wheat contracts are higher this morning with continued weather concerns in the US and abroad

Jun LC down 0.825 @ 132.800 & May FC down 0.575 @ 157.575
Net exports sales of beef of 28,400 mt for 2022 were a marketing year high, up 95% from last week
Steady cash and robust packer inventories are dragging futures lower
Look to June live cattle to hold above Monday’s low of 131.025
Lower feeders today could point to concerns about higher corn
Choice cuts down 0.16 and select down 0.17
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/10: down 0.09 @ 156.24

Jun hogs down 1.850 @ 99.025 & Jun pork down 1.725 @ 105.400
Net export sales at 26,300 mt for 2022, up 10% from last week and up 14% from prior 4-week average
Hog futures are lower this morning after a choppy day of trade yesterday
Cash fell by 0.81 and the cutout dropped 0.70 so futures are losing some support there
When cash finds a bottom there may be quite a bit of upside particularly in the deferred contracts
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/11: up 0.17 @ 101.26

Amanda Brill