TFM Midday Update 05-16-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 17 @ 7.98
Corn is higher this morning being pulled up by significantly higher wheat
Brazil’s second crop corn is still struggling with dry conditions as crops begin to pollinate, which points to a possibility that the USDA’s production estimates may be lower than anticipated
This afternoon’s crop progress should show a big jump in planting progress for both corn and soybeans after a week of warmer, more favorable weather
September corn on the Dalian exchange is trading at the equivalent of $11.18 a bushel, keeping the door open for more export demand

Jul soybeans up 9 @ 16.55
There were unconfirmed reports on Friday by Informa that planted corn acres are increasing by 2.0 ma and a decrease in soybean acres by 1.9 ma, a bullish scenario for soybeans
July soybean meal is supporting higher beans with a jump of 4.20 this morning
Later today, crush estimates for April will be released and should be well above last year’s 160.3 mb
Demand from China remains strong despite lockdowns (which may be lifted on 5/20) with July soybeans closing on the Dalian exchange at the equivalent of $21.44 on Friday

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Jul wheat up 70 @ 12.47, Jul KC up 69 @ 13.51, & Jul MNPLS up 53 @ 13.78
Wheat is in the spotlight today bringing the entire grain complex along with it
India officially blocked all wheat exports over the weekend except to those nations affected by hunger
Russian ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain were turned away from Mediterranean ports last night which caused a limit up move in wheat when the news broke
Wheat crops in the US are struggling with heat and dryness in the South, and too much rain in the North

Jun LC up 0.950 @ 133.000 & May FC down 0.450 @ 157.425
All live cattle contracts are higher alongside higher corn, while all feeders are lower working inversely
Cash was steady to 0.50 lower last week with the packer adding to the cattle they purchased ahead
June live cattle are significantly discounted to cash which leaves about 7 dollars to the upside if cash remains steady
Cumulative export sales for the year are 2.7% ahead of last year at 507,500 mt so far
Choice cuts up 1.75 and select down 0.46
Cattle slaughter projected at 123K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/13: down 0.25 @ 156.36

Jun hogs up 3.550 @ 104.750 & Jun pork cutout up 2.725 @ 109.125
China may ease lockdown restrictions on 5/20 which would increase pork demand, and domestic demand should increase with seasonality
Lean hogs appear to have completed their head and shoulders formation and are showing signs of life with today marking the second large move higher in a row
The cutout bounced 2.57 on Friday which is adding support to futures
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 4.89
Hog slaughter projected at 465K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/16: down 0.55 @ 100.49

Amanda Brill