TFM Midday Update 05-27-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, May 30, 2022, in observance of Memorial Day

CORN

Jul corn up 13 @ 7.78
The grain complex is higher across the board today following a strong move higher in the stock market
Russia has said that they would contribute to reducing the world food shortage but only if all sanctions were lifted against them which will be very unlikely especially as they escalate attacks in Ukraine
The unlikelihood that Ukraine will actually get corn exported along with Brazil’s second crop corn suffering dryness, the outlook for US corn exports remains bullish for the year ahead

Jul soybeans up 11 @ 17.38
Soybeans are higher again after a huge move higher yesterday thanks to the strong basis for both crushers and exporters
The move higher in crude yesterday gave support to soybean oil with demand strong and July holding a 2.22 premium over August
July soybeans now hold a 72-cent premium over August showing the willingness of buyers to pay up to own beans now, despite crush margins beginning to narrow
July soybeans closed at a new high on the Dalian exchange at the equivalent of $22.29 a bushel

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Jul wheat up 25 @ 11.67, Jul KC up 20 @ 12.48, & Jul MNPLS up 23 @ 13.15
Wheat is trading higher after being beaten down by bearish Russian news all week, as traders are now thinking that it is unlikely Ukraine will actually be able to export grain
Ukrainian ports are still closed due to the water being mined, and there is a fear of removing the mines in case Russia takes advantage and shells the area
The wheat market will also need to take into consideration a lower US HRW crop in addition to a lower Canadian crop thanks to extremely wet conditions
French wheat conditions have worsened after dryness and heat, causing the crops’ good to excellent rating to fall to 69% from 73% the prior week

Jun LC up 0.150 @ 132.550 & Aug FC down 0.050 @ 166.625
Live cattle are higher this morning following a jump in the Dow
Cattle are coming out of oversold territory which could be triggering some short covering into the long weekend
Cattle weights are declining, resulting in more cattle needing to be purchased to satisfy demand
Choice cuts up 1.04 and select up 0.37
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/26: up 0.45 @ 153.80

Jul hogs up 0.400 @ 112.250 & Jun pork cutout down 0.325 @ 115.425
Hogs are solidly in an uptrend after roaring higher yesterday and are continuing the trend today
Exports were strong, up 52% from last week with China listed as the third-largest buyer
The cutout has continued to trend higher pointing toward strong pork demand and putting pressure on the packer to buy more aggressively
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 1.37
Hog slaughter projected at 440K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/27: up 0.53 @ 104.40

Amanda Brill