Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.
CORN
Corn futures quietly traded 3 cents higher overnight with Sept at 6.08 and Dec at 6.04. Prices are having trouble gaining any upward momentum after the July 12 USDA monthly Supply/Demand report and in the wake of a higher dollar and lower crude oil. Technically, prices look to stay below their respective 200-day Moving Averages heading into the weekend. Weather-wise, a warm and dry forecast for areas that are already experiencing dry conditions will likely buoy the market above recent lows. For the week so far, corn is down 17. For the month to date corn is down 13-1/4; Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3%. Spot basis bids for row crops shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast dropped on Thursday on soft export activity, while wheat exports soared, traders said.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures traded two-sided again last night with a mixed tone. Aug beans are firm this morning at 14.72. Nov is off 2 cents to 13.39. August meal is up 3.10 to 442 after slumping to the lowest level since December 30. Nearby bean oil is down .28 to 57.86. For the week so far, soybeans are down 54-1/4; soymeal down $0.13; soy oil down 4.69. For the month to date soybeans are down 115-3/4; Soymeal down $4.30; Soy oil down 8.66. Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 11% in beans; soymeal up 7%; Soy oil up 3%.
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WHEAT
Wheat futures were firm overnight with Sept Chicago up 6-1/2 cents to 80.1/2, KC up 3-1/2 to 8.52; And, MPLS up 3 to 9.13-1/2. For the week so far, wheat prices are down 89 in SRW, down 92-/4 in HRW, down 78-3/4 in HRS; For the month to date wheat prices are down 81-1/2 in SRW, down 98-1/4 in HRW, down 77 in HRS; Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4% in SRW, up 6% in HRW, down -7% in HRS. Spot basis bids for hard red winter (HRW) wheat held steady in the southern U.S. Plains on Thursday while the Gulf track basis firmed by 6 cents a bushel, reflecting exporter demand after weekly U.S. export sales data came in above trade expectations
CATTLE
Cattle futures are called mixed after easing yesterday. August live cattle slipped to the lowest level since July 11 yesterday when closing at 135.40. However, expectations for a tighter supply into the end of the year offers support, as well as stuffy weather in the near-term forecast. Good exports are also noted. Cumulative sales for 2022 have reached 715,200 tons, up from 708,000 last year and the highest on record for this time of year. Inflation hit a 40 year high at 9.1%, and beef production is suffering high input costs with little relief in sight. Cash trade activity saw sales in the north from $144 to $147, $2 weaker than last week. In the south most cattle traded at $137 with a few at $136 in Texas. Zero cattle sold on Wednesday’s online exchange where packers bid $136-$137 in the south. The next upside objective on the August live cattle chart is at 136.95 with resistance around 136.05.
HOGS
Hogs are called mixed while staying range bound. Good pork cutout values provide underlying support while aiding packer margins and the lean index. The lean index moved up to 112.82 yesterday. Technically, with August futures, at 109.575 testing the higher end of the recent trading range and flirting with 100-day Moving Average resistance, it may be difficult to push out of that range given the current overall market conditions. We view the market being susceptible to some downside movement if new buying interest fails to materialize.
Author
Matthew Strelow