TFM Midday Update 7-14-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 10 @ 6.10
Corn is higher despite disappointing export sales numbers, but China was the primary buyer which gives some hope that they are getting back to importing US grains
Net sales of 2.3 mb for 21/22 were down noticeably from last week and down 72% from the prior 4-week average, while 22/23 exports were 13.7 mb
Below normal rain remains forecast for most of the Western Corn Belt for the next two weeks with temperatures well above normal as well

Sep soybeans up 7 @ 13.77
Soybeans are slightly higher following bad export sales numbers and a continuing decline in crude oil
The USDA reported more net cancellations of 13.3 mb of soybeans for 21/22, and an increase of 4.1 mb for 22/23
Last week’s export shipments of 16.2 mb were below the 27.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 2.170 bb for 21/22
The premium of soybean oil over heating oil is at the lowest level since February 2020 which should encourage the planned renewable expansion

Like what you’re reading?

Sep wheat down 9 @ 8.02, Sep KC down 5 @ 8.57, & Sep MNPLS up 5 @ 9.19
Wheat was higher in the premarket but has faded despite good export sales, but more talk of grain being allowed to leave Ukraine
Net sales of wheat were 37.4 mb for 22/23, and up noticeably from last week and the prior 4-week moving average, with increases primarily for China
Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey are reportedly signing a grain export deal that will be signed next week and allow Ukraine so safely move shipments of grain

Aug LC down 1.200 @ 135.700 & Aug FC down 1.600 @ 179.175
Live cattle are lower with disappointing cash trade, and feeders are lower with higher corn
Cash has been mostly marked at 137 in the South, about steady with last week, while Northern dressed traded at 230, 2 dollars lower than last week’s weighted average
Weekly export sales for beef of 9,200 mt were a marketing year low and down 17% from last week and 35% from the prior 4-week average
Choice cuts down 0.46 and select down 0.91
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/13: up 0.96 @ 172.30

Aug hogs down 1.075 @ 109.550 & Aug pork cutout down 1.125 @ 113.500
Hogs are lower this morning after big gains yesterday with cash unchanged and an increase in the cutout of 0.81
Weekly export sales for pork were 18,300 mt for 2022 and down 42% from last week and 37% from the prior 4-week average
Technical traders are unsure as the market could be poised to break out above resistance, or fill the gap lower on the Aug chart
National Direct Afternoon report fell 0.02
Hog slaughter projected at 458K
CME Lean Hog Index for 7/14: up 0.25 @ 112.82

Amanda Brill