Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.
CORN
- Dec corn up 1 @ 6.71
- USDA reported an increase of 20.2 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and 6.3 mb for 23/24
- Mostly dry weather in the Midwest should advance harvest
- Ukraine continues to be the lowest priced seller of corn which is hurting US exports (but the corridor deal may not be renewed in November)
- Ethanol production yesterday was down 6%
- Tomorrow’s reports historically lead to an active and potentially volatile trade
SOYBEANS
- Nov soybeans up 5 @ 14.14
- USDA reported an increase of 36.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and a reduction of 1.1 mb for 23/24
- Crude oil closed sharply higher yesterday as the US Dollar eased back
- Pressure in the soybean market has come from slow China export demand, potentially bigger crops in South America, and overall lower palm oil prices
- Argentina farmers are said to have sold 13 mmt of cash soybeans in September after the government offered them a more favorable exchange rate
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WHEAT
- Dec wheat down 1 @ 9.02, Dec KC down 4 @ 9.72, & Dec MNPLS down 3 @ 9.70
- USDA reported an increase of 10.3 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and a reduction of 1.1 mb for 23/24
- Dryness remains in the US southern plains
- Tensions are increasing in the Black Sea with Putin’s comments that he will use nuclear weapons if necessary, in addition to the annexation of 4 Ukrainian states
- The Nord Stream pipeline is now said to have 4 leaks with suspicion of intentional sabotage
- Paris milling wheat futures managed to close above the 100-day moving average yesterday
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered Argentina’s wheat production estimate to 17.5 mmt (down 1.5 mmt from the USDA)
CATTLE
- Oct LC up 0.550 @ 143.600 & Sep FC up 0.300 @ 175.675
- Beef net export sales of 21,500 mt
- Strength in the US dollar may affect international demand
- Slaughter pace continues to run strong
- Global concerns about energy and food prices may weigh on the cattle market
- Both live and feeder cattle futures are oversold and in need of a correction
- Choice cuts down 0.88 and select down 2.00
- Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/28: down 0.36 @ 177.46
HOGS
- Oct hogs up 0.975 @ 90.350 & Oct pork cutout up 0.450 @ 99.500
- Pork net export sales of 34,300
- Hogs closed weaker again yesterday but are up at midday today and may be showing signs of bottoming with futures being oversold
- Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report released this afternoon
- Pre-report estimates: all hogs and pigs at 99.2%, kept for breeding at 99.6%, dept for marketing at 99.1%
- National Direct Afternoon report declined 4.09
- Hog slaughter projected at 483K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 9/29: down 0.81 @ 95.60
Author
Brandon Doherty