Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

• Dec corn up 13 @ 6.82
• Lack of export demand approaching harvest may be negative to corn (and soybean futures)
• Today is month & quarter end which could lead to some fund liquidation
• Corn basis has been strong all summer which could indicate lower stocks than expected
• Poor ethanol margins and more downtime have led to a decline in production
• US Midwest looks to be mostly warm and dry over the next couple weeks which should aid harvest
• France’s corn harvest is reported to be 51% complete and is expected to be the smallest crop in decades

SOYBEANS

• Nov soybeans up 11 @ 14.22
• South American values for soybeans (and corn) are cheaper than the US, affecting our export demand
• Palm oil was up yesterday, but overall is still down 8.5% for the week
• China is said to have purchased 60 cargoes of soybeans for Oct-Nov over the past few weeks, but South America is believed to have supplied most of that
• An estimated 10 (of 99) soybean crushing plants in Brazil have closed down
• Argentina is still dry but Brazil has mostly favorable weather

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WHEAT

• Dec wheat up 16 @ 9.12, Dec KC up 12 @ 9.79, & Dec MNPLS up 10 @ 9.76
• Russia set to announce the annexation of 4 Ukraine states
• Talk that in the future, foreign institutions may not be able to buy grain from Russian farmers for export
• Yesterday wheat prices faded a bit due to news that the Algerian tender will likely go to Russia only
• Paris milling wheat futures closed above the 100-day moving average again yesterday, and are headed for another close above today

CATTLE

• Oct LC down 0.325 @ 143.800 & Oct FC down 1.450 @ 175.875
• Strong weekly export sales are supportive, with China as the 2nd largest buyer
• Southern cattle traded steady while northern were $1 lower
• October feeder cattle are now the front month contract
• Food inflation remains a concern for cattle prices
• Choice cuts down 1.47 and select up 0.57
• Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
• CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/29: down 1.52 @ 175.94

HOGS

• Oct hogs up 0.750 @ 90.200 & Oct pork cutout up 0.600 @ 99.150
• Despite a strong start, hog futures faded into the close
• Lower cutouts pressured futures
• The Hogs & Pigs report was neutral to friendly with: all hogs & pigs down 1%, kept for marketing down 1%, kept for breeding down 1%
• National Direct Afternoon report declined 4.93
• Hog slaughter projected at 476K
• CME Lean Hog Index for 9/30: down 0.46 @ 95.14

Author

Brandon Doherty