TFM Midday Update 10-4-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 5 @ 6.86
Corn futures are higher this morning following the release of crop progress which showed the corn harvest making gains from the prior week, but still below average
20% of the crop is harvested compared to 12% last week but 25% on average, and 75% is mature vs 58% last week and 75% on average
Not all corn has reached black layer yet, which could leave some yields vulnerable to below freezing temps this week in the northern and northwest growing areas
The US Dollar which is coming off its highs has given corn and other commodities room to move higher

Nov soybeans up 13 @ 13.87
Soybeans are higher with much of the gains thanks to a significant drop in the US Dollar as well as crude oil which is moving higher
Crop progress showed 22% of the soybean crop harvested compared to just 8% last week and 25% on average, and the continued cool and dry weather should speed things along
81% of the crop is dropping leaves compared to 63% a week ago and 75% on average
On Wednesday, OPEC will meet and may cut oil production by as much as 1 million barrels per day, which could increase demand of bean oil as biofuel

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Dec wheat down 10 @ 9.00, Dec KC up 1 @ 9.88, & Dec MNPLS down 3 @ 9.77
Wheat was higher this morning but is now mixed with Chi and Minn wheat lower but KC up
The big story in wheat right now is that according to the USDA, the percent of topsoil considered short to very short of moisture ranges from 80% to 92% from South Dakota to Oklahoma which may impact the HRW wheat crop
Winter wheat is now 40% planted compared to 31% a week ago and 44% on average, and 15% has emerged compared to 9% a week ago and 17% on average
Ukraine will face challenges planting and exporting their crop while Russia may also have problems selling their wheat with few wanting to work with them

Oct LC down 0.125 @ 144.200 & Oct FC down 0.675 @ 174.850
Both live and feeder cattle are lower after opening higher as grains gain some ground
Live cattle are correcting from their oversold situation and will need better cash and higher boxed beef numbers to offer additional support
Feeder cattle have been oversold for nearly two weeks and are due for a correction
Choice cuts up 2.19 and select up 1.18
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/3: down 0.02 @ 175.44

Oct hogs down 0.650 @ 88.125 & Oct pork cutout down 0.500 @ 97.500
Hogs are mixed this morning with front months lower and deferred months higher
October futures are trading closely with the cash index as expiration approaches in two weeks, and the declining cash has held Oct back compared to later months
While cash fell, the cutouts saw a needed boost of 2.34, and packers may be more aggressive today
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.41
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/4: down 0.58 @ 94.33

Amanda Brill