TFM Midday Update 10-5-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 2 @ 6.85
Corn is higher this morning after reports that inventories of ethanol in the US have fallen to their lowest level since December at 21.69 million barrels, down from 22.69 mb last week
Futures were lower before the ethanol inventories were released as the US Dollar is moving higher again putting pressure on most commodities
StoneX has lowered their estimate of 2022 corn production to 14.056 bb from 14.168 bb, but raised their yield estimates to 173.9 bpa from 173.2 bpa previously
Low water levels in the Mississippi River may impact barge traffic over the next few months

Nov soybeans down 11 @ 13.73
Soybeans are lower despite higher crude prompted by OPEC’s technical committee recommending production cuts of 2 million barrels of oil per day
The US Dollar has regained its losses from yesterday which is putting pressure on the soy complex as South American beans remain the cheaper option
StoneX lowered its forecast of the US 2022 soybean yield to 51.3 bpa from 51.8 bpa
Cash soybean meal in Illinois fell 43 dollars on Monday to a four month low giving up its steep premium to futures and is sparking demand concerns

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Dec wheat up 14 @ 9.17, Dec KC up 15 @ 10.04, & Dec MNPLS up 15 @ 9.90
Wheat is higher today after Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said yesterday that only 2.7 million acres of winter wheat has been planted, down from 7.7 million acres a year ago
Ukraine has re-taken many territories that Russia recently annexed and the world is waiting to see what Russia’s reaction will be
With the US production estimate for wheat now at 1.65 bb and the questions over how much wheat Russia and Ukraine will manage to export, global supplies will likely remain tight

Oct LC up 0.525 @ 144.725 & Oct FC up 0.775 @ 175.475
Both live and feeder cattle are relatively higher after trading unchanged at the open
Asking prices are around 145 in the South and not yet established in the North
The US Dollar is moving higher again today and is likely putting pressure on cattle futures
Choice cuts up 2.10 and select up 0.60
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/4: up 0.23 @ 175.67

Oct hogs up 2.625 @ 89.600 & Oct pork cutout up 0.775 @ 98.000
Hogs are higher this morning with October leading the way as it follows the cash index which had a big move higher yesterday with the weighted national average at 92.77
The packers stepped up aggressively yesterday to boost cash, but cutouts fell by 1.64
Slaughter pace has been brisk, and weights are around 3 pounds less than a year ago
National Direct Afternoon report gained 10.17
Hog slaughter projected at 483K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/5: down 0.89 @ 93.44

Amanda Brill