TFM Midday Update 10-10-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 18 @ 7.02
Corn is higher this morning, led by a sharp increase in wheat and anticipation of possible lower corn ending stocks on Wednesday’s WASDE report
Two choke points were opened on the Mississippi River on Sunday, allowing better barge traffic flow, but water levels are still critically low
Several crop growing regions in the northern Midwest experienced subfreezing temperatures, which may affect yields
Non-commercials were buyers of corn last week, increasing their net long position by 5,874 contracts to 272,039 contracts

Nov soybeans up 9 @ 13.77
Soybeans are higher and getting some support from wheat, but in addition, China’s holiday week is over, and they may be back to buying US beans
Wednesday’s WASDE report will likely show a modest increase in ending stock estimates, but will still be near the lowest levels in 7 years
Despite lower crude and a higher dollar, all three soy products are higher today, especially as the need for bean oil as biofuel will likely increase
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers reducing their net long position by 17,343 contracts to 77,488 contracts

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Dec wheat up 66 @ 9.47, Dec KC up 66 @ 10.34, & Dec MNPLS up 54 @ 10.21
Wheat is leading the entire grain complex higher today as the war in Ukraine continues to escalate with new missile attacks in several Ukrainian cities
Russia claims that these missile attacks are retaliation for Ukraine blowing up Russia’s bridge to Crimea, and the escalating hostilities make it seem less likely that Russia will agree to renew the Black Sea grain deal in November
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of 2,178 contracts, increasing their net short position to 12,219 contracts

Oct LC down 0.425 @ 144.900 & Oct FC down 2.850 @ 171.875
Both live and feeder cattle are lower this morning with feeders leading the way down as grains rally and the dollar continues to rise
Last week’s cash trade was down around a dollar higher in both the South and North at 144 and 230 respectively, but lower boxed beef is a bearish factor
Funds were sellers of live cattle last week by 19,139 contracts, reducing their net long position to 42,936 contracts
Choice cuts down 1.29 and select down 0.86
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/7: down 0.77 @ 174.92

Oct hogs up 0.550 @ 93.500 & Oct pork cutout up 0.200 @ 101.825
Hogs are higher today with December showing the most strength and working towards closing the gap between October
Cash hogs slipped but the cutout showed a mild gain of 0.13
Funds were sellers last week reducing their net long position by 18,302 contracts to 22,827 contracts, and selling in the livestock complex was the fourth largest selling week on record
National Direct Afternoon report fell 3.59
Hog slaughter projected at 482K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/10: down 0.12 @ 92.65

Amanda Brill