TFM Midday Update 10-12-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 2 @ 6.92
Corn is trading quietly lower ahead of the WASDE report at 11 central, which is expected to lower corn ending stocks somewhere below 1.20 billion bushels for 22/23, the lowest in 10 yrs
Yesterday, the USDA reported that 31% of the US corn crop has been harvested, which is slightly above the 5-year average of 30% for this time of year
The USDA’s estimate of corn processing value in yesterday’s report showed an increase of 37 cents to 9.41 a bushel in Iowa
Yesterday’s export inspection report showed 18 mb for last week during a seasonally lower time of activity for shipments

Nov soybeans up 4 @ 13.80
Soybeans and bean meal are slightly higher ahead of the WASDE report, while bean oil is lower as crude oil continues to fall
Today’s report is expected to keep the crop estimate near 4.38 bb with a 50.5 bpa yield, but there is a chance that ending stocks for 22/23 are increased
Yesterday, the USDA reported that 44% of the crop has been harvested, which is above the 5-year average of 38% for this time of year
Yesterday’s report of 35.6 mb of soybean export inspections were an improvement from last week, despite issues with barge traffic on the Mississippi River

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Dec wheat down 10 @ 8.91, Dec KC down 6 @ 9.85, & Dec MNPLS down 12 @ 9.74
Wheat is trading lower today following more missile attacks on Ukraine by Russia that once again temporarily shut off power to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
The USDA reported that 55% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, below the 5-year average of 58% with topsoil moisture in South Dakota short or very short
Today, the USDA is expected to cut its estimate of US ending wheat stocks for 22/23 from 610 mb to something near the low to mid 500’s, the lowest levels in 15 years
The Black Sea grain deal looks more and more unlikely to be renewed as the war escalates

Oct LC up 0.175 @ 145.975 & Oct FC up 0.500 @ 175.575
Live cattle are higher, and front month feeders are higher, but deferred months are lower
Mixed boxed beef has tightened packer margins as feedlots hold for another dollar higher
A bullish WASDE report for corn may encourage feedlots to move cattle more steadily
Choice cuts up 2.12 and select down 0.97
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/11: up 0.03 @ 174.64

Oct hogs down 0.175 @ 92.850 & Oct pork cutout UNCH @ 102.250
October hogs are slightly lower, while deferred months are higher following a gain in cash and a gain in the cutout of 1.76 as the packer got more aggressive yesterday
Hog weights have increased by 0.7 pounds to 281 which could limit the number of animals needed to satisfy demand
Tomorrow’s weekly export sales may show continued strong international demand
National Direct Afternoon report gained 3.74
Hog slaughter projected at 487K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/12: down 0.03 @ 92.95

Amanda Brill