CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted mild gains on the first trading day of 2025, supported by strong demand. Gains were capped by overhead resistance at $4.60 (March futures), a stronger U.S. dollar, and weakness in wheat.
• The U.S. dollar index broke out to new 26-month highs on Thursday, now trading at its highest point since May 2022. The strong dollar limits U.S. competitiveness in the global export market. In addition, the Brazilian real currency dropped to its lowest point versus the dollar in history on Thursday.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning, delayed a day due to the New Year holiday. Expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.4 MMT for the week ending December 26. Last week’s reported sales exceeded expectations at 1.711 MMT.
• Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 327 million gallons per day last week, up slightly from the prior week. Corn used for production last week reached an estimated 112 mb, which is above the pace needed to reach the current USDA target. Ethanol stocks have climbed, however, hitting a 15-week high on this report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher to start the new year following a sharply higher move on Tuesday that brought March futures back above $10.00 and above recent resistance at the 50-day moving average. Support today came from soybean meal while soybean oil was lower.
• Soybean demand has been firm, and soybean crush has continued to increase over the past few months. Bloomberg analysts see soybean crush for November at 208.1 million bushels which would compare to 200.1 mb a year ago. Oil stocks are expected to come in at 1.496b lbs, which would be down from the previous year.
• Support in soybeans has also come from a drier Argentinian forecast that is expected to last for around 10 days. This has specifically been beneficial to soybean meal as Argentina exports a significant amount. Brazilian weather remains favorable, and production estimates continue to rise with an estimate today by StoneX at 171.4 mmt.
• On December 31 there were 380 deliveries against January soybeans for a total of 489 deliveries. There have been 1,764 deliveries against January bean meal and 617 deliveries against January soybean oil.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat prices fell on Thursday, failing to break upside resistance. Traders are navigating a strong U.S. dollar, a poor Russian wheat crop, and firm demand, with the market in a consolidation phase.
• Pressure in the wheat market today was likely due to a sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar combined with the falling value of the Russian ruble. Wheat exports have been slightly better than expected recently though, with cuts to Russian production estimates.
• The USDA’s Friday export report is expected to show wheat sales between 200,000–500,000 MT for the week ending December 26, compared to last week’s 612,000 MT.
• Weather forecasts are showing an improved chance of precipitation over the winter wheat belt going into the end of the week.  The U.S. storm track will likely push more southerly, allowing for moisture to help support the crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The January through June 2025 Class III contracts held small gains today. Second month February closed at $20.48.
• Spot cheese was a tick higher to close at $1.86875/lb, entering Friday up 4.8750 cents. Whey was unchanged.
• All Class IV contracts were unchanged from Tuesday’s close, but there were some volumes in the early half of 2025.
• Both spot butter and powder lost a half-cent today. They enter Friday down 3.00 and 1.75 cents, respectively.

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Author

Amanda Brill