TFM Daily Market Summary 01-13-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures extended gains following Friday’s bullish USDA report. Support from strong buying in both soybean and wheat markets pushed corn prices to their highest close since June.
  • Money flow continues to move into the corn market as hedge funds have grown their long position, supported by the demand tone and friendly USDA data. Expectations are that hedge funds are 280,000-300,000 net long contracts. The latest Commitment of Traders report will be released on Monday afternoon.
  • Corn export inspections reached 1.441 MMT (56.7 mb) last week, surpassing analyst expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 26% ahead of last year and continue to outpace the USDA’s forecasted pace.
  • Strong producer selling in both U.S. and international markets could cap the corn rally by boosting export competition. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index climbed to a new high on Monday, adding headwinds for exports.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the second consecutive trading session with the March contract now comfortably above the 100-day moving average with the 200-day as its potential next target. Trade is riding the sugar high from Friday’s WASDE report and potentially dry Argentinian weather.
  • Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean meal led the entire complex higher as concerns arose over the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil with Argentina facing dangerously low soil moisture levels. Higher crude oil prices today were likely supportive to soybean oil.
  • Friday’s WASDE report saw the national soybean yield fall by 1 bpa which was significantly more than the average trade estimate. Ending stocks have fallen to just 380 mb from 470 mb in December’s report. World ending stocks were lowered as well.
  • One week from today, President Trump will be inaugurated, and he has stated that 100 executive orders would begin on his first day. While most will likely focus on border security, Tariffs on Chinese goods will likely also be a focus, and this could have a negative impact on trade relations.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat finished higher in all three classes, led by double-digit gains in Chicago. This rally occurred despite a new near-term high for the US Dollar today, and relatively neutral wheat data on Friday’s report. Spillover support from higher corn, and sharply higher soybeans, offered strength to wheat.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 10.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 478 mb, which is up 25% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.
  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values remained unchanged last week at $237 per MT on a FOB basis. SovEcon reported Russian grain exports totaling 410,000 MT for the week, with wheat accounting for 400,000 MT. Russia also reduced its wheat export tax by 2.3% to 4,245 Rubles per MT through January 21.
  • Ukraine’s total 2025 grain production may reach between 55-65 mmt, according to UkrAgroConsult. For reference, last year’s grain harvest was 54.3 mmt. In addition, the amount of grain for export is estimated to be between 40-50 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • After a sharp down day on Friday that saw block cheese lose 7.75c, buyers were quick to gobble up the cheaper loads on Monday, pushing blocks back up 9c to $1.91/lb.
  • Class III milk futures were encouraged by the quick turnaround in cheese and took January up 16c to $20.35 and February up 33c to $20.60.
  • The Class IV market saw some slight up movement following a 1.25c higher bid in the US spot butter trade. Butter’s close at $2.6125 is its best finish since mid-November.
  • The US Dollar Index was bid higher once again, hitting its highest level since 2022.
  • News and reports this week should be light for the dairy trade. The market will likely lean on the spot market for direction.

 

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Author

Brandon Doherty

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