The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day.
CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- The corn market finished moderately lower on Thursday, with overall grain market weakness prompting some long liquidation. An improved weather forecast for South America, along with Canada’s proposal for a counter tariff, likely contributed to the selling pressure in corn. For the week, March corn futures are trading 4 cents higher heading into Friday’s session.
- The USDA released weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 9, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 1.024 MMT (40.3 mb) for the current marketing year. Total sales commitments for the marketing year are at 1.585 bb, which is up 28% over last year and ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA exports target.
- Forecasts have shifted to a wetter outlook for the dry areas in Brazil and Argentina, helping to alleviate crop stress caused by hot and dry conditions. Additionally, the wetter regions in Brazil are expected to dry out, which will allow for the harvest and planting of the second crop of corn to gain momentum.
- The Canadian government proposed a counter tariff plan on U.S. imports totaling $105 billion dollars. One item that may be impacted could be U.S. ethanol imports, which approximately 35% of U.S. exported ethanol goes to Canada.
- Corn futures may face pressure from technical trading in the near term. The corn market is currently in an overbought condition, with managed hedge funds estimated to hold a near-record net long position. Additional selling pressure could weigh on the market heading into the 3-day weekend on Friday.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, marking a third consecutive decline and pushing the March contract back below the 100-day moving average. The selloff was likely driven by overbought conditions leading funds to take profit, as well as favorable weather conditions in South America. Both soybean meal and oil also saw lower prices.
- Today’s export sales report saw an increase of soybean sales of 20.9 million bushels for 24/25, which was in line with the average analyst estimate. Sales were down 27% from the prior 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 54.2 mb were above the 21.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
- Yesterday’s NOPA crush report for December saw soybean crush at 206.60 million bushels, setting a record for the month as several new processing facilities have begun operations. This exceeded the average trade estimate of 203 million bushels.
- While Argentina’s dry streak is expected to be broken within the next few days, some damage has already been to the crop with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowering good to excellent ratings by 13 points. Only 8% of the crop is pod filling at this point.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- All three classes of wheat experienced selling pressure on Thursday, following the trend of other grain markets and failing to hold recent gains. The weak price action and disappointing technical close may leave wheat prices susceptible to further selling pressure as the week comes to a close.
- USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 9, U.S. exporters posted new sales of 513,400 MT (18.9 mb) for the current marketing year. South Korea was the largest buyer of U.S. wheat for that time period. Total export commitments are at 644 mb, up 9% from last year, but behind the pace to reach USDA export targets.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) left its world wheat production forecast at 796 million tons. The IGC lowered their Russia crop forecast but balanced that total with a forecasted strong Australian crop. For 2025-26 growing season, the IGC sees wheat production rising to a possible record of 805 million tons, up 1% year-on-year.
- Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2025-26 soft wheat production forecast for the European Union, citing higher-than-expected plantings in Germany. The firm now projects the 2025 EU wheat crop at 127.2 MMT, up 600,000 MT from its initial forecast and 13 MMT above last year.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Nearby Class III markets closed with decent gains today while the June through November contracts gave back some value.
- Spot cheese had a productive day, gaining 5.875 cents to close at $1.89/lb. Spot whey was unchanged.
- Class IV milk was mostly under pressure with the exception of the May contract, which gained 35 cents on 35 contracts traded.
- Spot butter gave back 3.25 cents today to enter Friday down 6.50 cents on the week so far. Powder was even with Wednesday’s close.
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