TFM Daily Market Summary 01-16-2026

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

 

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures finished the week higher, supported by an uptick in flash export sales and end-of-week profit-taking. March corn futures settled 4-1/2 cents higher at 424-3/4, while the May contract gained 4-1/2 cents to 432. Despite Friday’s strength, March futures declined 21 cents on the week.
  • Despite the session strength, March corn futures traded 2 ½ cents off the 427 ¼ high for the session and failed to hold above the 425-price level. The 425-price level was the previous high for the past two sessions.
  • USDA announced two flash sales of export corn on Friday morning. Japan purchased 120,000 MT and Unknown Destination picked up 298,000 MT of corn for the current marketing year.
  • U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global export market following the recent price break. Including Friday’s announcements, USDA has reported seven flash corn sales this week. The U.S. is expected to retain this advantage into late spring, when South American harvest pressure begins to increase competition.
  • Argentina corn production is forecasted to hit a record level of 63 MMT for the growing season as favorable weather and acreage expansion are supporting the potential record production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the week higher, marking a third consecutive session of gains. March soybean futures added 4¾ cents to close at 1057-3/4. March soybean meal rose $0.80 per ton to $290, while soybean oil futures faced light profit-taking late in the week, slipping 0.36 cents to close at 52.61 cents.
  • Despite closing lower on Friday, soybean oil led the complex higher for the week, posting its strongest weekly performance since June. Market support stemmed from expectations that the Trump administration’s EPA will announce an updated biofuel policy by early March, including higher renewable blending targets.
  • NOPA December soybean crush reached a record 225 mb, up 18.4 mb from a year ago and marking the second-largest monthly crush total on record, behind October 2025. Cumulative crush is running at an all-time high, 7% ahead of last year’s pace, and is expected to account for more than 60% of U.S. soybean usage in the current marketing year.
  • Soybean crop conditions in Argentina deteriorated over the past week, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Good-to-excellent ratings fell to 61%, down 4% week over week, with the agency noting increasing dryness stress. The two-week outlook calls for below-normal rainfall as the crop enters the pod-fill stage.
  • Weekly performance within the soybean complex was mixed: March soybean futures declined 4¾ cents, March soybean oil futures gained $2.92, and March soybean meal futures dropped $13.70 per ton.
  • Strong domestic crush demand and renewed optimism around biofuel policy are providing underlying support to the soybean complex, particularly soybean oil. Sustained strength in soybean oil and confirmation of South American production losses would be needed to drive a broader upside move in soybean futures.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • All three wheat classes finished the day higher, erasing yesterday’s losses. Short covering seemed to be the cause for the rebound in prices to close out the week. March Chicago closed 7-1/2 cents higher to 518, March KC was up 10 cents to 527-1/4, and March MIAX closed at 565, up 2-1/2 cents.
  • The International Grains Council raised its Argentine wheat production estimate by 4.2 MMT to a record 27.7 MMT. The group also increased its Canadian wheat forecast by 3.4 MMT, adding further pressure to global supply expectations.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange cut their Brazilian wheat production estimate by 0.1 mmt to 7.9 mmt. This compares to the USDA’s estimate of 8.0 mmt.
  • Colder temperatures are forecast to move into the U.S. Plains this weekend and persist into next week, raising concerns about potential stress to the winter wheat crop, particularly in areas with limited snow cover.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk futures finished out the week on a positive note, with all 2026 contracts, besides the May contract, seeing improvement.
  • Spot cheese held steady at $1.32375/lb to close out the week. Whey tacked on 1.50 cents to go home at $0.7350/lb.
  • Class IV milk futures were steady to slightly weaker across 2026 contracts despite both butter and powder seeing gains.
  • Spot butter found some demand, improving 4 cents on the day to close at $1.3550/lb. Powder prices added 0.75 cents to end the week at $1.2550/lb.

 

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg

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