- Another quiet news day in the grain markets but buying strength in the soybean market did help pull corn futures slightly higher during the session. March corn gained ¼ cents on the day as prices have consolidated the past five sessions around the USDA report day low.
- Weekly corn export inspections were within expectations at 28.1 mb (713,000 mt). Total inspections for the marketing are now at 579 mb, up 28% from last year. Corn inspections are running ahead of the USDA projections.
- South American weather is looking to trend a little drier in southern areas, but overall weather patterns are staying favorable for crops.
- Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing ahead of average pace. Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated at 6% harvested, up from 1.8% last year. The key crop production state of Mato Grasso is nearly 13% complete. The early soybean harvest is allowing Brazil producers to begin planting of the key second crop corn in an earlier time window.
- Soybeans ended the day higher with the March contract now 23 cents off its low from last Thursday. Soybean meal continued its trek lower today, while soybean oil was supported from higher crude oil and palm oil.
- Today’s export inspections were decent with 42.7 mb inspected for the week ending January 18. Total inspections are now at 983 mb for 23/24 which is down 22% from the previous year. No flash sales were reported today, but there was a large sale to China last Friday.
- South American weather is forecast to be slightly drier over the next 10 days with the decline in precipitation mainly in Argentina and Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul. The majority of Brazil is expected to continue getting scattered showers as harvest begins.
- Brazil is currently 6% complete with harvest which is up 2% from last week, and early yields have been poor, but the majority of this early harvested crop is the part that was under the most stress from dry and hot weather. More accurate yield estimates will not be available until harvest is further along.
- Despite a lack of fresh news, wheat was able to close mostly higher today following a day of two sided trade. This was also in the face of a mostly lower close for Matif wheat futures. With US futures at or very near oversold levels technically, this may indicate that the market has found a near term bottom. This marks the fourth higher session for March Chicago wheat.
- Weekly wheat inspections totaling 11.6 mb bring the 23/24 total inspections to 394 mb, which is down 16% from last year. Inspections are also running behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 725 mb goal for 23/24 wheat exports.
- According to the CFTC, as of January 16, managed funds were short 68,575 contracts of Chicago wheat. That is an addition of 10,587 contracts from the previous week, representing an 18.3% increase to their short position.
- Due to the ongoing issues in the Red Sea, more and more European vessels transporting wheat are being re-routed to avoid using the Suez Canal. According to the World Trade Organization, shipments from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU using alternative routes have increased 42% by mid-January. This compares to just 8% in December.
- In Monday’s dairy spot trade, the block cheese market saw the price rise 5.50c back to $1.50/lb. There were 2 loads traded as buyers aggressively bid up the market.
- The remaining four spot products all saw no change on Monday in what was a quiet spot trade.
- The market will get to see updated milk production data and cold storage data in this week’s Wednesday reports.
- February ’24 Class III led the market higher today, adding 10c to $15.89 on nearly 1,000 contracts traded.
- Class IV was choppy due to the lack of movement in the spot trade. February Class IV gained 2c to $19.06.
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