CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished the week strong, as export sales exceeded expectations and pushed March corn to its highest close since the January 12 USDA report. March corn futures gained 6 ½ cents to 430 ½, while May futures added 5 ¾ cents to 438. For the week, March corn futures finished 5 ¾ cents higher.
• USDA weekly export sales released Friday morning were sharply bullish. For the week ending January 15, corn sales totaled 4.01 MMT (157.9 mb), well above trade expectations and a new marketing-year high, as importers stepped in following the post-report price break.
• February options expired on Friday. February options were priced against the March futures. The 430-strike level had the largest amount of open interest going into the session. Options expiration may have supported the corn market as prices tend to flow to the largest areas of open interest on expiration.
• A strong winter storm forecast for the Midwest Corn Belt could provide temporary support to the corn market, while snow, ice, and cold temperatures may limit transportation. The cash basis may see some improvement to encourage producers to move additional bushels.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange reported a drop in Argentina corn crop ratings as the impact of hot, dry weather in the southern growing region has limit the crop. Good to excellent conditions fell 12% to 52% G/E. The dryness is a concern, but not as severe as last year as crop ratings were only 40% G/E. The Rosario Grain Exchange recently raised their corn production forecast to 62 MMT for the growing season.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans moved higher into the weekend, supported by bullish export sales data and lingering dryness concerns in Argentina. March soybeans gained 3-3/4 cents to 1067-3/4 while November soybeans gained 4-3/4 cents to 1082. March soybean meal gained $3.70 to $299.90, and soybean oil gained 0.21 cents to 53.99 cents.
• Today’s export sales report was supportive across the grain complex, with strong results for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Soybean sales increased 89.9 mb for 25/26 and 0.3 mb for 26/27, marking a marketing-year high. Sales were up 19% from last week and 92% above the four-week average. Top buyers included China, unknown destinations, and Egypt. Export shipments totaled 49.2 mb, well above the 27.0 mb weekly pace needed to meet USDA projections.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered Argentina’s soybean crop condition ratings by 8 points this week to 53% good-to-excellent, while Brazil—outside of southern areas of concern—remains largely on track for another record soybean crop in 2026.
• Weather models continue to favor a wetter pattern across central Brazil, easing near-term production concerns as soybeans enter the critical pod-filling stage. Southern Brazil and Argentina, however, are forecast to trend drier than normal over the next 10 days.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Winter wheat futures posted double-digit gains, while spring wheat lagged. A continued decline in the U.S. Dollar Index to its lowest level since early October provided underlying support. More significantly, an arctic blast moving across the central U.S.—with below-zero temperatures forecast as far south as the Texas Panhandle—has raised concerns about potential winter wheat damage, driving the outperformance of winter classes relative to spring wheat. March Chicago gained 14 cents to 529-1/2, Kansas City was up 15 at 540-3/4, and MIAX closed 1-1/4 higher at 575.
• Weekly export sales were delayed until today due to Monday’s holiday. The USDA reported an increase of 22.7 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and 0.5 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 13.7 mb, which falls under the 16.8 mb per week pace needed to reach their 25/26 export goal of 900 mb. However, total commitments at 768 mb are up 18% from last year.
• The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have kept their wheat export tax at 0% through February third.
• LSEG commodities research has increased their estimate of Argentina’s 25/26 wheat production by 9% to 27.1 mmt. Better-than-expected weather late in the season and good soil moisture levels were cited as reasons for the increase. For reference, the USDA increased their estimate by 3.5 mmt to 27.5 mmt on the January WASDE.
• The Iraqi government is said to have approved selling surplus wheat from their reserves. They will reportedly sell a total of 500,000 mt at around $318/mt. Furthermore, their domestic harvest will begin in April and is expected to yield around 4 mmt; currently there are about 4 mmt in their reserves.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A return of demand to the butter and powder markets shot Class IV futures much higher this week.
• By week’s end, February Class IV added $1.29, March added $1.60, and April gained $1.64.
• Several Class IV contracts closed limit higher on Friday due to butter gaining 11.50c and powder adding 4.25c.
• December milk production was up 4.40% from last year, with cow numbers up 212,000 from a year ago.
• U.S. butter stocks were announced down 7% from a year ago, while cheese stocks on December 31st were up 1% from last year.

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Author

Amanda Brill