CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn closed lower on Tuesday despite flash sales, as concerns grow over continued demand. Argentina’s prices are now cheaper than those in the U.S. beyond March, raising worries about whether demand will be strong enough to absorb the record U.S. crop. March corn is down 1 ¾ cents at 4.26 ½ while May is down 1 ¼ cents at 4.34 ¾.
• The USDA reported private export flash sales of 110,000 mt of corn and 306,000 mt of sorghum to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine corn production forecast by 2 mmt to 54 mmt, still above the USDA estimate of 53 mmt. He kept his Brazilian forecast unchanged at 137 mmt, well above the USDA’s 131 mmt estimate.
• President Trump is heading to Iowa today ahead of the mid-term elections for a speech and a tour of an ethanol facility. The failure to pass year-round E-15 sales has not sat well with U.S. corn farmers and has added pressure to corn markets. He is expected to face questions on why year-round E-15 sales have not been a higher priority for the administration.
• President Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on South Korean imports due to delays in approving the trade deal with the U.S. is weighing on prices, as South Korea is the fourth-largest importer of U.S. corn.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher with strength coming from soybean oil and optimism over biofuels. March soybeans gained 5-1/2 cents to $10.67-1/4 while November gained 3-3/4 cents to $10.82-3/4. March soybean meal lost $0.30 to $294.0 and March soybean oil gained 0.52 cents to 54.41 cents.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated to be 4.9% complete as of January 22 according to AgRural. This compares to 2% a week ago and 3.9% the prior year, and production estimates have been increased to 181 mmt from their last guess of 180.4 mmt.
• After China completed their purchases of 12 mmt of US soybeans at the beginning of this year, export sales have slowed down. China had committed to buy another 25 mmt of US soybeans this year, but recently they have turned to cheaper Brazilian soybeans and may not be back purchasing from the US in significant numbers until the fall.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report was decent for soybeans but below last week’s numbers with inspections totaling 48.7 million bushels for the week ending January 22. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 759 mb, which is down 39% from the previous year. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Italy.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• With the exception of deferred SRW contracts, the wheat market closed marginally higher today. The plunge of the US Dollar Index to a four-year low likely kept wheat mostly positive with very light bull spreading noted in the winter classes. March Chicago gained 3/4 cent to 523-1/4, Kansas City was up 3 at 532-3/4, and MIAX closed 2 higher at 571-3/4.
• Ukraine’s 25/26 wheat exports have reached 8.4 mmt, which is down 21% year over year. Meanwhile, EU soft wheat exports totaled 12.38 mmt as of January 23, down only 1% versus last year.
• According to Interfax, Russia exported 50 mmt of grain in 2025, with wheat accounting for 41 mmt of that total. Russia’s harvested amount of grain in 2025 reached 140 mmt, with wheat specifically at 91 mmt. Russian grain exports are expected to increase in 2026 compared to last year.
• Brazil’s imports and exports of wheat are said to both be lower than those of January 2025. Secex data indicates that they imported about 294,000 mt so far in January, compared to 717,000 mt last year. Meanwhile, exports are only 172,000 mt so far, compared with 552,000 a year ago.
• It will probably take several weeks before traders know the extent of harm done to the US winter wheat crop, caused by the recent frigid temperatures. While crop damage could be bullish for prices, the winter storm also brought precipitation to much of the central US. This moisture could help alleviate drought conditions in the southeastern plains and southern Midwest while also limiting any rallies.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were higher this morning before turning down. February settled at $15.68, down 35 cents.
• Spot cheese gave back 2 cents today to settle at $1.4350/lb while whey was unchanged.
• Class IV milk was lower as well with the second month contract down 28 cents to $15.20.
• Spot butter gave back just a half cent while powder was up 3 cents to move to a new high for the move at $1.36/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty