CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Buyers returned to the corn market on Tuesday as buying strength across the grain markets helped push corn prices moderately higher. The strong demand tone continues to help support the old crop side of the market.
- The USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 MT (5.2 mb) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, marking the fourth consecutive day of announced export sales.
- Corn prices eased from session highs after President Trump reiterated a February 1 deadline for potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Concerns over counter-tariffs linger as Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn.
- Afternoon forecasts show the potential for rain fall for central Brazil. Additional rainfall may limit soybean harvest pace, which would slow the planting pace of the key second crop Brazil corn. The second crop Brazil corn is the main crop that competes against U.S. bushels on the export market.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front month March unchanged but the deferred contracts higher. Futures were likely correcting yesterday’s sell-off slightly as little has changed fundamentally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day slightly higher.
- The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly the slowest since the 20/21 harvest. Parana has been leading the country in progress, but Mato Grosso and other states are still delayed although there have been reductions in rainfall projections.
- In Argentina, just 20% of the soybean crop is setting/filling pods, and adequate soil moisture levels have fallen from 81.1% to 54.8 since the beginning of the year. Recent rains are expected to improve conditions.
- Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections at 729k tons which compared to 979k last week and 913k the previous year. The majority of the soybeans are headed to China followed by Turkey.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat made modest gains in all three classes today, despite the move higher for the US Dollar. Support came from a rebound in Paris milling wheat futures, as well as talk that warm weather in the Black Sea region could cause wheat to come out of dormancy too soon.
- The Russian Grain Union projects 2024/25 grain exports may fall below 50 MMT due to weather issues and reduced production, with wheat accounting for 41–42 MMT. SovEcon estimates January wheat exports at 2.1 MMT, the lowest since 2017.
- Secex data shows Brazil’s daily average wheat imports for January 2025 at 34.4K MT, up 23.3% year-over-year. Total imports through January 20 reached 412.8K MT, compared to 614K MT for all of January 2024.
- The US ag attaché to Argentina is estimating their wheat crop at 18.1 mmt, which is above the USDA’s guess of 17.5 mmt. Additionally, Argentina’s wheat export volume may increase, as their government’s recently announced export tax reduction began today.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Class III milk futures saw big gains for a second straight day led by the March contract which improved 50 cents to $20.09. All first quarter contracts are now back above the $20.00 level.
- Spot cheese continues to push higher to start the week, tacking on another 2.25 cents today to close at $1.8775/lb. Whey remains unchanged at $0.6975/lb.
- Class IV milk futures were pressured on Tuesday by weaker spot trade for its products. May futures were down 29 cents to $20.49 while the 2025 Class IV average lost 12 cents to $20.39.
- Spot butter dropped 3 cents to $2.50/lb on pressure from high inventory levels. Powder was unchanged at $1.3475/lb.
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