CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A strong wheat market and a 4-year low in the US dollar index helped support corn futures during the session as the march contract tested above the 430 price level. March futures closed 3 ½ cents higher to 430, while the May contract added 3 ¼ cents to 438.
• The US dollar index traded to a 4-year low and the Brazil Real traded to a 1-year high early in the session, likely help support buying in both corn and soybean market. Both currencies reversed early session prices, which limited gains in the corn market on Wednesday.
• Weekly ethanol production dropped to 327.5 million gallons for the week ending Jan 23. Production was likely limited by winter weather impacts during the week. A total of 110 mb of corn was used for production in the week, slightly ahead of the USDA target pace.
• Argentina weather is forecasting hot and dry conditions in key corn growing areas. Argentina was forecasted for a possible record crop, but recent weather has lowered those expectations as crop ratings have slipped. Potential benefical rain could arrive in the first part of February.
• USDA is releasing weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations are for total sales to range from 1.0 to 2.5 MMT of new sales for the week ending January 22. The market knows 5 reported sales for that time window totaling 763,000 MT.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day but backed off their earlier highs after failing to remain above the 100-day moving average. March soybeans gained 7-3/4 cents to $10.75 while November gained 7-1/4 cents to $10.90. March soybean meal gained $3.80 to $297.80 and soybean oil lost 0.10 cents to 54.31 cents.
• The bullishness in soybeans today was largely to do with the devaluation of the US dollar along with the increasing value of the Brazilian real. This has made US soybeans cheaper in relation, but China has mostly been absent from US purchases over the past week and have sourced from South America.
• South American weather also likely lent strength to soybeans today as Southern Brazil remains on the dry side which could cause stress to the crop. Argentina is also dry and key growing areas have missed recent spotty showers. Soil moisture and crop conditions have fallen and are expected to continue lower.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated to be 4.9% complete as of January 22 according to AgRural. This compares to 2% a week ago and 3.9% the prior year, and production estimates have been increased to 181 mmt from their last guess of 180.4 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite fading from session highs, both US winter wheat classes posted double-digit gains; spring wheat lagged behind. Today’s action was likely short covering caused by the recent drop in the US Dollar, which hit a 4-year low yesterday. And while firming up a bit today, the Dollar is still well within yesterday’s range. March Chicago gained 12-3/4 cents to 536, Kansas City was up 9-1/2 at 542-1/4, and MIAX closed 2-1/4 higher at 574.
• There is still uncertainty concerning damage done to the US winter wheat crop after the recent arctic blast. That, along with firming MATIF futures, also offered support for the US Market today.
• SovEcon is reported to have increased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 1.1 mmt to 45.7 mmt. This compares to the USDA at 44 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon is forecasting Russian 26/27 wheat production at 83.8 mmt with exports at 39.6 mmt. The production number would be down from their 88.8 mmt 25/26 estimate, if realized. For reference, official Rosstat data has the Russian wheat harvest for 2025 at 91.4 mmt.
• According to the Russian agriculture minister, their nation will target global markets with seed and technology, as increasing production in other countries may cut into the Russian grain export market. Reportedly, Russia is in talks with Egypt in regard to using Russian seed and tech to raise Egyptian productivity and food security. Russia is currently the leading global wheat exporter, with Egypt being their main importer. In total, 78% of Russian wheat exports go to African and Middle Eastern countries.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures extended losses, as February dropped 10 cents to close at $15.58.
• Spot cheese continued to weaken, dropping 3.8750 cents to close at $1.39625/lb. Spot whey gained 1 cent, closing at $0.750/lb.
• Class IV milk was lower as well, with the second-month contract down another 15 cents to close at $15.05.
• Spot butter slipped 7 cents in today’s session, closing at $1.5250/lb. Spot powder strengthened, gaining 2 cents to close at $1.380/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg